Best Supporting Actor Predictions (October)

UPDATE: With confirmation from Netflix that Chadwick Boseman’s upcoming performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom will be submitted as a lead performance, his prediction for Best Supporting Actor has been amended to Da 5 Bloods.

One month on from the tragic passing of Chadwick Boseman and it still hurts to remember we’ve lost one of the brightest talents in the industry. All eyes now turn to his final performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, which was already building Oscar buzz before his untimely death. While we await the film’s debut in December, he sits as the assumed frontrunner at this point.

Even with Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7 now widely seen by critics and audiences lucky enough to receive its limited theatrical release, it still remains unclear who Netflix will push for a nomination and in what category. An ensemble piece in every sense of the word, it’s almost impossible to declare one actor as the film’s lead. For now, let’s assume they’re all considered supporting and my money is on Sacha Baron Cohen becoming the chosen one.

As for Bill Murray, many of us thought this could finally be his year, courtesy of Sofia Coppola’s On the Rocks. Now that we’ve seen the film, it may just be too light of a performance to be a serious contender, especially against the numerous dramatic turns in contention. A nomination might be Murray’s consolation prize, but even that is beginning to look difficult. Keep one eye on Richard E. Grant’s potentially scene-stealing turn in Everybody’s Talking About Jamie. Grant should have won back in 2018 for Can You Ever Forgive Me?, so he’s owed a do-over.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Leslie Odom Jr – One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios)
2. David Strathairn – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
3. Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
4. Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
5. Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Charles Dance – Mank (Netflix)
Richard E. Grant – Everybody’s Talking About Jamie (20th Century Studios)
Lucas Hedges – French Exit (Sony Pictures Classics)
Hugh Laurie – The Personal History of David Copperfield (Searchlight Pictures)
Bill Murray – On the Rocks (AppleTV+)
Tom Pelphrey – Mank (Netflix)
Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Marlon Wayans – Respect (United Artists Releasing) [Moved to August 2021]