The 2021 Screen Actors Guild nominations are almost upon us. Imagine, Sacha Baron Cohen nominated, but for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. Whether or not that kind of satire is the SAG’s cup of tea might not be here nor there. Every now and then, they like comic talents doing drama – Jim Carrey (Man on the Moon); they like Bond villains – Javier Bardem (Skyfall); they like magical nannies and pregnant mothers in terror – Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns and A Quiet Place). You could easily argue that the omission of Blunt for either film with AMPAS was more of a surprise than her SAG win.
Sometimes a curve ball, sometimes a foul ball, but the influential folk at the Screen Actors Guild don’t always follow the path we expect. Remember when Jennifer Connelly (A Beautiful Mind) was the favourite to win the Best Supporting Actress Oscar, but was nominated for Female Actor in a Leading Role with SAG? And Benicio del Toro (Traffic) now you mention it. Could that happen this year?
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Back in the 2006 awards race, imagine the mind-squabbling that must have occurred throughout decision time over who to nominate and where for The Departed. In the supporting category, it was Jack Nicholson who was touted, and Mark Wahlberg who bagged the Oscar nod. SAG went with Leonardo DiCaprio, but not in lead. Was he the lead? Probably.
And while this year it is Leslie Odom, Jr. who is constantly in the conversation, it seems – to me at least – that the over-shadowing of the rest of that terrific ensemble is a bit of a sore thumb. Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami) might well be the stand-out performer here (if you had to pick one), and the lack of his name across the season has many a head shaking.
Say what you will, the supporting slots are still fairly fragile, so it would not be out of the question to see Ben-Adir finally make contender status. SAG have previously nominated duos from the same picture. But the likes of Tim Robbins (The Shawshank Redemption), Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) and both Hank Azaria and Nathan Lane (The Birdcage) all had similar reduced buzz to Kingsley Ben-Adir.
So while it is Odom, Jr. being the representative for One Night in Miami (for the most part), Ben-Adir might still pop up. And rightly so. Perhaps the big conundrum is whether or not Ben-Adir joins his co-star in the supporting category or lands a justifiable slot in the lead category.
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If the nominations reveal from SAG can echo anything, it might be a particular film’s support. Even if they were perhaps not destined for an Academy Award nod themselves, SAG found room for Frida‘s Alfred Molina and Chicago‘s Richard Gere in the 2002 race. Similarly, John David Washington earned a SAG nomination for BlacKkKlansman, but only Adam Driver made the Oscars shortlist. And Joseph Fiennes couldn’t follow his SAG nod with the Academy for the Best Picture winner, Shakespeare in Love.
Who are we looking at this year? Who are the less obvious, but still possible, acting contenders from films very much in the race? Add the weight of potential lead Oscars winners, I wouldn’t be surprised if Bo Burnham (Promising Young Woman) and Olivia Cooke (Sound of Metal) find themselves nominated with SAG. I’d strongly argue that the latter would be well-deserved, but it’s hard to challenge the real momentum of Promising Young Woman and what else it might bring in with the buzz.
But even without much buzz there can be a spot for you at SAG. Your status as an acting veteran ours you in good stead. Helen Mirren appears to be awards royalty, but even her SAG nod for Hitchcock was not widely predicted. Other surprisingly refreshing nominations would certainly include two late actors, David Kelly (Waking Ned Devine) and James Garner (The Notebook). With a stellar career behind him and his current film still very much in the awards race, I’d say look out for Charles Dance (Mank) quite possibly making the supporting five.
At the other end of the age demographic, the Screen Actors Guild have been known to honour youth performances in their nominations. Though please note, Jamie Bell (Billy Elliot), Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire) and Dakota Fanning (I Am Sam) all (sadly) failed to be Oscar nominated following their uncertain nods with SAG. That might well change this year with Helena Zengel (News of the World), who represents a stunning international breakout star for a film holding on for dear life this awards season.
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And taking as much of that into consideration as you see fit, those wouldn’t even be grand surprises at all. Where you predicting Cate Blanchett (Bandits), Naomi Watts (St. Vincent) or even Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy)? Some of those wayward, unexpected SAG nominations (and there are generally not that many) knock us off our chairs rather than solidify our Oscar predictions. I’d love to say I had Jamie Lee Curtis (True Lies), Stockard Channing (Smoke) and Ziyi Zhang (Memoirs of a Geisha) in my forecasted fifth slots.
Trying to be a smart-ass and give Ben Affleck (The Way Back) a shout seems a little too possible to be a wildcard here. So I’m swirling around in my own head the vague knowledge of the TV/film voting body crossover. You know, when those riding success on the smaller screen startle us with SAG nominations in the film sphere. The excellent Sarah Silverman (I Smile Back) and Jennifer Aniston (Cake) made the lead actress cut with the Screen Actors Guild.
While I’d love to design myself a Nostradamus badge at correctly selecting Julia Garner (The Assistant) as a SAG nominee, it is just too much of a long shot. Let’s just mix in the recent Emmy win and Netflix gusto and go with a much safer pick in Zendaya (Malcolm & Marie). Like Aniston, that could certainly strengthen an Oscar nomination chance or turn out to be a glorious red herring.
