With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. We’ve got a quartet of men with the quartet of key precursor nominations from BAFTA, the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards, and the SAG Awards. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), and Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) haven’t missed a beat all season, so they all feel like total locks here. Shout-out to Domingo for making this the second year in a row he’s achieved this accomplishment. Baring a staggering snub, they’re all getting in.
That leaves the final spot up for grabs. It’s a tough call to make and it really boils down to two contenders; Daniel Craig (Queer) and Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice). Craig is a big name who’s never been close to Oscar contention before. Yes, we’re no longer in an awards game world of “straight man plays gay and gets an Oscar nomination,” but he’s giving career-best work here and it would cement his deft film choices to break away from the James Bond moniker.
Stan is in the unenviable position of having two leading performances in contention in the same year. He just won a Golden Globe for A Different Man, so there are obviously rumblings about “voter splitting” ruining his chances with the Academy plus murmurs of people flat-out refusing to watch The Apprentice given the man Stan is playing. I think enough has been done to place the campaign focus on Stan’s work as Donald Trump (BAFTA and the Spirit Awards weren’t confused as to which performance to nominate), but is it enough to fend off Craig? I’m sticking with Craig but it could go either way.
BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Adrien Brody – The Brutalist (A24) – BAFTA, Gotham, CCA, GG, SAG
2. Ralph Fiennes – Conclave (Focus Features) – BAFTA, EFA, CCA, GG, SAG
3. Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
4. Colman Domingo – Sing Sing (A24) – BAFTA, Gotham, CCA, GG, Spirit, SAG
5. Daniel Craig – Queer (A24) – EFA, CCA, GG, SAG
Alternate: Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice (Briarcliff Entertainment) – BAFTA, GG, Spirit
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