With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. And, with BAFTA nominations coming five days after the Academy’s announcement, we’re flying without that typical precursor stat. At least we have their longlists for some reference.
It’s been a typically topsy-turvy race to determine the final five women who will make it into the Academy’s good graces for Best Actress. Now that the precursor season pieces have all fallen into place, we’re left with five that feel eerily locked in, meaning a shock upset might just be waiting on the horizon. But who could possibly be snubbed from this line-up?
Certainly not Golden Globe winners Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) or Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You). Both have Actor Award and Critics Choice Award nominations to add to their appearance on the BAFTA shortlist. There may have been some hesitation early in the season about whether Byrne could ride her Silver Bear win at Venice to her first Oscar nod, especially for such a small film. But that Globe win and the fact she hasn’t missed a beat all season proved that wrong.
While she missed a SAG nomination due to their frustrating shunning of all non-English language performances this season, Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) hasn’t missed a beat anywhere else. And she just won Best European Actor at the European Film Awards, where her film absolutely dominated. She’s safe.
Emma Stone (Bugonia) and Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another) also have the quartet of GG, CCA, SAG, and a BAFTA longlist appearance in their favour, so that should wrap it up, no? It’s never wise to presume anything with the Best Actress category.
Early in the season, things were looking good for Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee) to score her second Oscar nod. Her performance was universally praised by critics during the fall festival season. Her film was snatched up (albeit quite late in the game) by Searchlight Pictures, who know a thing or two about Oscar campaigning. She earned CCA and GG nods. But then the film completely blanked with the Oscars shortlists. And Seyfried failed to appear on the BAFTA longlist. Could she rise from the dead to snatch a spot? Eh, it’s not likely.
If anyone is looking to spoil the party, it’s Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), who has campaigned like nobody’s business in the past few weeks in an attempt to earn her second Oscar nomination, 25 years after her first nod for Almost Famous. That’s led to GG and SAG nominations and a mildly surprising appearance on the BAFTA longlist, which places her firmly in striking distance to snatch a spot.
But who would Hudson knock out? Stone is starting to feel like our modern-day Meryl Streep and will continue to be nominated for pretty much anything and everything she does moving forward. As a wide-eyed newcomer, Infiniti is probably most at risk. But the fact she stars in the undeniable frontrunner for Best Picture should be enough to keep Hudson at bay…or will it?
BEST ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Jessie Buckley – Hamnet (Focus Features) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG, SAG
2. Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG, SAG
3. Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value (NEON) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG
4. Emma Stone – Bugonia (Focus Features) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG, SAG
5. Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG, SAG
Alternate: Kate Hudson –Song Sung Blue (Focus Features) – BAFTA longlist, GG, SAG
