With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. And, with BAFTA nominations coming five days after the Academy’s announcement, we’re flying without that typical precursor stat. At least we have their longlists for some reference.
We also won’t have the Writers Guild of America nominations until after the Academy’s announcement. But, as with every year, numerous contenders have been announced as being ineligible, so the WGA nods are never truly that great a bellwether anyhow. On the adapted side, One Battle After Another and Hamnet have nods from the Critics Choice Awards and the Golden Globes, plus appear on the BAFTA longlist, so they’re our two locks.
Bugonia and Frankenstein couldn’t land Globe nods, but we know they’re both looking likely for Best Picture nominations, so let’s presume they’re fairly safely tucked away as well. It feels like the battle for the fifth spot comes down to Train Dreams and No Other Choice. The latter is looking at a potential snub in Best International Feature, which could mean it just gets a solo screenwriting nod. But the former is a solid chance for a Best Picture nod, so going with five BP nominees feels more likely.
On the original side, Sinners, Sentimental Value, and Marty Supreme have the trio of CCA, GG, and a BAFTA longlist mention, so they’re locked in. It’s undeniable It Was Just an Accident is now looking shaky in the bigger categories, but a screenwriting nod for Jafar Panahi seems far more likely. If the film really underperforms, it could be its only nod.
That leaves us with the fifth spot to play with. Weapons is in with a strong chance, especially if it pulls off a shock Best Picture nod. It could be The Secret Agent, if it really overperforms. But, as I predicted way back in August, I think that final slot goes to Sorry, Baby. I’m not suggesting Julia Roberts has the power to influence this race, but the fact she gave Eva Victor and the film a random shout-out at the Golden Globes (plus Ryan Coogler sang the film’s praises recently on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert) proves there’s a lot of love out there for Victor to get a screenwriting nomination.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG, Gotham
Paul Thomas Anderson
2. Hamnet (Focus Features) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG
Maggie O’Farrell & Chloé Zhao
3. Bugonia (Focus Features) – BAFTA longlist, CCA
Will Tracy
4. Frankenstein (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, CCA
Guillermo del Toro
5. Train Dreams (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, Gotham
Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
Alternate: No Other Choice (NEON) – CCA, Gotham
Park Chan-wook, Don McKellar, Lee Kyoung-mi & Lee Ja-hye
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG
Ryan Coogler
2. Sentimental Value (NEON) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG
Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt
3. Marty Supreme (A24) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG
Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
4. It Was Just an Accident (NEON) – BAFTA longlist, GG, Gotham
Jafar Panahi
5. Sorry, Baby (A24) – CCA, Gotham
Eva Victor
Alternate: The Secret Agent (NEON) – BAFTA longlist, Gotham
Kleber Mendonça Filho
