With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. As if it wasn’t already difficult to predict the final five nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay without adding Barbie to the mix. But with nominations for Best Original Screenplay at the BAFTAs and the Critics Choice Awards plus a nomination in the combined screenplay category at the Golden Globes, there’s no way it’s missing, regardless of what category it’s in.
Oppenheimer and Poor Things landed nominations with all four of the major precursors for screenplays; BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globes, and USC Scripter, so they’re both in as well. American Fiction and Killers of the Flower Moon both are just missing one of those nods. So that’s it, right? That’s our final five? Well, it absolutely could be. But the screenplay categories often throw a curveball from nowhere, especially for films not nominated anywhere else like All of Us Strangers.
If that’s going to happen this year, expect to see Andrew Haigh deservedly steal someone’s spot. But just which of the five do you drop out to make way for him? All are likely to have Best Picture nominations; a nod that usually goes hand-in-hand with a screenplay nomination. All have performed well throughout the season. After some snubs at the BAFTAs including Screenplay, maybe it’s Killers? Or could American Fiction be too comedic to be taken seriously? I’m not confident enough to drop one right now, but I could change my mind before Tuesday.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, USC
2. Poor Things – Tony McNamara (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, USC
3. Barbie – Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA (original), CCA (original), GG
4. Killers of the Flower Moon – Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese (Paramount Pictures / Apple Original Films) – CCA, GG, USC
5. American Fiction – Cord Jefferson (Amazon MGM/Orion) – BAFTA, CCA, USC
Alternate: All of Us Strangers – Andrew Haigh (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA
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