With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. There are only two films in the Best Orignal Screenplay race that hasn’t missed a beat all season and that’s Past Lives and Maestro with nods from BAFTA, the Golden Globes, and the Critics Choice Awards. While the former seems assured of a nomination, the latter feels more shakey, given Bradley Cooper’s screenwriting snub in 2018 for A Star is Born.
The Holdovers missed a Globes nod, but that doesn’t mean too much when it was in a combined screenplay category. It’s picked up so much steam in the last few weeks and it’s locked in for a nod and maybe even the win here. Likewise with Anatomy of a Fall, which scored an upset screenplay win at the Globes and seems destined for a big haul of nominations overall.
That leaves the final spot up for grabs. While it may only have a Critics Choice Award nomination under its belt, May December has performed well in the screenplay category with the critics groups including a win with the New York Film Critics Circle. With Barbie forced out of this category, there really isn’t another strong fifth contender here. Maybe it’ll be Emerald Fennell and Saltburn is this year’s example of the “nominated for screenwriting and nothing else” trend.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. The Holdovers – David Hemingson (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA
2. Past Lives – Celine Song (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG
3. Anatomy of a Fall – Justin Triet, Arthur Harari (NEON) – BAFTA, GG
4. Maestro – Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer (Netflix) – BAFTA, CCA, GG
5. May December – Samy Burch (Netflix) – CCA
Alternate: Saltburn – Emerald Fennell (Amazon MGM Studios)
