With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. The battle for Best Director is shaping up as a contest between the veteran and the newcomers. Who ultimately wins will be something we can debate once the nominations are announced. For now, we have two, maybe three, or even four, certainties in this race.
One certainty is that Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) is receiving his ninth nomination for Best Director. Okay, maybe there’s a chance of a shock upset snub (he’s been there before), but it’s hard to see it happening this year. He missed a nod at BAFTA, but he has the trio of other precursor nominations in Critics’ Choice, the Golden Globes (where he won), and DGA.
The other sure thing is that Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once) are set to become the first directing team to score an Oscar nod since Joel and Ethan Coen in 2017 for No Country for Old Men. With the lion’s share of wins from the critics, a win at Critics’ Choice, and nominations at all four major precursor awards, they have a lock on their first Oscar nomination.
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) has all four precursor nominations too, so he should be feeling pretty secure in the top five. The only thing that gives us pause is that McDonagh had all four nominations in 2017 for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Misouri and still missed an Oscar nomination. Could history repeat itself and McDonagh is snubbed again? Something tells me that’s not going to happen. The Banshees of Inisherin is nowhere near as divisive as Three Billboards and McDonagh feels far safer this year.
With nominations at BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, and DGA, Todd Field (TÁR) feels pretty secure in the Academy’s top five too. Sure, he missed at the Golden Globes, but that’s fairly meaningless in the bigger picture. His film is a bonafide contender across the board and Field is hugely admired in the industry. If there’s a shock snub on the cards, it’s not going to be Field.
So that leave us with one final spot to fill. And, for the fifth year in a row, most of us seem fairly confident that it’s going to a director of an international film. It could be Park Chan-wook for Decision to Leave. He got in a BAFTA and many will feel he’s long overdue for Oscar recognition. It might be Ruben Östlund for Triangle of Sadness, particularly if the film overperforms and lands a Best Picture nod.
But, I’ve predicted Edward Berger since September, and I’m sticking with him until the end. At the very tail end of the season, All Quiet on the Western Front has emerged as a genuine contender across the board. It’s likely to score nominations in several tech categories. It seems to have Best International Feature sewn up. And Berger just landed a BAFTA nod. Seems good enough for me to predict him to score a much deserved Best Director nomination.
BEST DIRECTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CCA, DGA, GG
2. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, DGA
3. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, DGA
4. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, DGA, GG
5. Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA
Alternate: Park Chan-wook – Decision to Leave (MUBI) – BAFTA
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