With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. In a rather strange turn of events, the battle for Best Director is legitimately the toughest category to predict this year. There is really only one certain nominee and that’s Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer). He’s our presumed winner and stands as the only director with nominations from BAFTA, DGA, the Golden Globe Awards, and the Critics Choice Awards, making him the only true lock.
As for choosing the other four nominees, it’s probably wise to look at the other DGA nominees; Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Greta Gerwig (Barbie), and Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). But the Academy hasn’t matched the DGA five since 2009, so clearly someone is missing out. And likely in favour of a director of an international film such as Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) or Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall).
Picking between Glazer and Triet is difficult in itself. Anatomy has really picked up a lot of steam in recent weeks, particularly after its great showing at BAFTA and those Golden Globe wins. But Glazer is responsible for the film likely to win Best International Feature. And Triet will be nominated (and possibly even win) for writing Anatomy, so Glazer feels like the safer prediction.
But which of the DGA five do you cut to make way for him? Surely not someone as revered as Scorsese? Or Gerwig who was responsible for the biggest box office success of the year? Or an auteur like Lanthimos? You’d say it would be Payne, given The Holdovers is lighter fare, but it’s peaked at the right time and we know how much the Academy adores him. Lord, this a tough one. I’m going with the Gerwig snub, but I hope I’m wrong.
BEST DIRECTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, DGA, GG
2. Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon (Paramount Pictures / Apple Original Films) – BAFTA, CCA, DGA, GG
3. Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, DGA, GG
4. Alexander Payne – The Holdovers (Focus Features) – CCA, DGA
5. Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest (A24) – BAFTA
Alternate: Greta Gerwig – Barbie (Warner Bros.) – CCA, DGA, GG
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