With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. And now we arrive at the big one and it’s feeling a lot easier to predict than usual. It really does look like for the first time ever, the PGA ten will be the final nominees for Best Picture at the Oscars.
When both Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest made it in at PGA (the first time two non-English language features were nominated in the same year), it truly felt like the race for Best Picture nominations was over. PGA has often thrown in an odd nominee that we know won’t make it into the Oscars like Deadpool, Crazy Rich Asian, and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm but you cannot say that about any of the nominees this year.
Are any of the PGA nominees in danger of missing a Best Picture nod? Well, to be honest, not really. Which of them would you cut? And what would you replace it with? I’ve always felt Past Lives might be at risk of missing out here. It was released way back in June and A24 has other priorities this season. But it hasn’t missed a beat so far, so why would it now? Maybe one of the international films misses out, but the Globes could make room for both, so why wouldn’t the Academy?
The only film on the periphery is The Color Purple, given its SAG ensemble nomination. But the film itself has been practically non-existent all season. It couldn’t even snag a Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy nomination at the Globes. It would be a monumental upset and would steal the spot of a far more deserving film. History looks set to be made and the PGA ten are all making it through.
BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS:
1. Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Paramount Pictures / Apple Original Films) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA
3. The Holdovers (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA
4. Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA
5. Barbie (Warner Bros.) – CCA, GG, PGA
6. Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) – BAFTA, GG, PGA
7. American Fiction (Amazon MGM/Orion) – CCA, GG, PGA
8. Maestro (Netflix) – CCA, GG, PGA
9. The Zone of Interest (A24) – GG, PGA
10. Past Lives (A24) – CCA, GG, PGA
Alternate – The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
