With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. And, with BAFTA nominations coming five days after the Academy’s announcement, we’re flying without that typical precursor stat. At least we have their longlists for some reference.
In the race for the big one, we’ve got five films that haven’t missed a beat all season. One Battle After Another, Sinners, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and Frankenstein have the quintet of nominations from the Critics Choice Awards, the Golden Globes, an ensemble nod at the Actor Awards, PGA, and appear on the BAFTA longlist. They’re locked in. Throw Sentimental Value in the group too, since its only miss was with SAG, who chose to ignore all non-English language films this season.
That leaves us with four spots to play around with. Bugonia feels the next certain. It was never getting a SAG ensemble nod, and it wasn’t a huge shock to see it miss at PGA. Its trio of CCA, GGA, and BAFTA longlist mention make it the strongest of the bunch vying for those final places. And we know the Academy loves Yorgos Lanthimos, so it’s locked in, too.
After two wins at the Golden Globes, it’s clear The Secret Agent is peaking at just the right time in a similar fashion to fellow Brazilian film I’m Still Here last season. It could even overperform with directing and screenplay nods, so a Best Picture nomination seems all but secure now. Train Dreams hasn’t had the best precursor season run, but that PGA nod makes me feel like it’s a safe bet for that ninth spot.
So we’re left with that last slot to look at. Early in the season, It Was Just an Accident seemed like a no-brainer for a slew of nominations. It won the Palme d’Or at Cannes. It scored three Gotham Awards. It sat on 97% on Rotten Tomatoes. It seemed destined to be the choice international film of the season. But then it lost Best Non-English Language film at both CCA and GG, and with the film critics of Los Angeles and New York. Jafar Panahi couldn’t land a DGA nod. It was absent from the PGA ten and the BAFTA longlist.
The wheels have undoubtedly fallen off its campaign. There’s no particular reason why. Perhaps it just peaked too early. In saying that, I still think it squeaks into that tenth spot. There are many predicting F1 to take the final place, and it absolutely could. It did nab a PGA nod, but it’s barely appeared anywhere else this season. Many have called it this year’s Top Gun: Maverick, but that blockbuster had much better pre-season success, particularly winning Best Film from the National Board of Review, landing on the BAFTA longlist, and being nominated for Best Picture by CCA.
BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS:
1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG, PGA
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG, PGA, SAG
3. Hamnet (Focus Features) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG, PGA, SAG
4. Sentimental Value (NEON) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG, PGA
5. Marty Supreme (A24) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG, SAG, PGA
6. Frankenstein (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG, SAG, PGA
7. Bugonia (Focus Features) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG
8. The Secret Agent (NEON) – GG
9. Train Dreams (Netflix) – CCA, PGA
10. It Was Just an Accident (NEON) – GG
Alternate: F1 – PGA
