With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. If there is one certainty at this year’s Academy Awards, it’s that Ke Huy Quan is winning Best Supporting Actor for Everything Everywhere All at Once. He’s the critics favourite with over 40 wins. He’s scored wins at Critics Choice and the Golden Globes. He’s got nods from BAFTA and the Screen Actors Guild. It’s all over.
In saying that, Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan haven’t missed a beat all season either for their work in The Banshees of Inisherin. Both have nods from the same four major precursors and it’s looking like Martin McDonagh has done it again with two nominees for Best Supporting Actor from one of his films (Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson were both nominated for 2017’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri).
From seemingly nowhere, Eddie Redmayne has stamped his claim on his third Oscar nomination. The Good Nurse never really took off as an awards contender, but his menacing performance has netted Redmayne nods from BAFTA, the Golden Globes, and SAG, and that trio of nominations is impossible to ignore.
That leaves our final spot up for grabs. Paul Dano (The Fabelmans) missed out at BAFTA, but we know they ignored that film almost entirely and I can’t see the Academy following suit. Dano was on the cusp of nominations in 2008 for There Will Be Blood and 2015 for Love & Mercy, so he has a slight “overdue” narrative behind him. In saying that, this could be another Belfast situation and Judd Hirsch steals his spot à la Judi Dench and Caitríona Balfe last year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
2. Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
3. Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
4. Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse (Netflix) – BAFTA, GG, SAG
5. Paul Dano – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CCA, SAG
Alternate: Albrecht Schuch – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA
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