With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. There are two sure things for a Best Supporting Actress Oscar nomination; Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) and Ariana Grande (Wicked). Both have the quartet of nominations from BAFTA, the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards, and the SAG Awards, making them total locks here.
While many initially doubted the chances of Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), she only missed at SAG but is technically nominated as part of the film’s ensemble, so she feels safely inside the top three. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) was also snubbed by SAG plus bizarrely also by CCA. There are rumblings voters are tuning out of the 3.5-hour epic before the second act where Jones’ performance really takes off. Could that cost her an Oscar nod? Maybe, maybe not.
That really leaves us with one spot open. It could go to Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) who has the same duo of nods as Jones. The Academy isn’t opposed to multiple supporting nominees from the same film. And Gomez and Saldaña both getting in would be reminiscent of Catherine Zeta-Jones and Queen Latifah making it through for fellow movie musical Chicago. But Gomez really needed a SAG nomination to prove her fellow actors take her seriously.
It could be Margaret Qualley (The Substance). She’s won the most prizes from the critics and there’s a lot of love out there for The Substance. But, again, her lack of love from SAG and also BAFTA is hard to ignore. Maybe it’s Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) who enters the final stretch with just a SAG nom to her name. But we haven’t seen an Oscar nominee with just a SAG nod since Ruby Dee (American Gangster) in 2007, so it’s hard to see it happening unless A Complete Unknown really overperforms.
Instead, it looks like the final nominee will be recent winner Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl). While all the focus was initially on her co-star Pamela Anderson, Curtis has come from seemingly nowhere to nab surprise nominations at both SAG and BAFTA. We know she campaigns her ass off, so maybe we shouldn’t be all that surprised, especially since her upset win for Everything Everywhere All at Once in 2022 highlighted the love for her within the industry. Frankly, I think Curtis delivers a better performance in The Last Showgirl than EEAAO, so I can’t bemoan her making it through.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
2. Ariana Grande – Wicked (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
3. Isabella Rossellini – Conclave (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG
4. Felicity Jones – The Brutalist (A24) – BAFTA, GG
5. Jamie Lee Curtis – The Last Showgirl (Roadside Attractions) – BAFTA, SAG
Alternate: Selena Gomez – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) BAFTA, GG
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