With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. And, with BAFTA nominations coming five days after the Academy’s announcement, we’re flying without that typical precursor stat. At least we have their longlists for some reference.
There are really only two films that feel like sure-things for nominations in Best Visual Effects: Avatar: Fire and Ash and F1. Superman also feels relatively secure, especially after its strong showing with the Visual Effects Society nominations. Those final two spots could go any number of ways.
Sinners may not have performed as strongly with VES. Strangely, it didn’t land on the BAFTA longlist either. But the buzz out of the VFX bake-off was positive for the complex work to blend Michael B. Jordan’s dual performances together. Add in being a major contender overall, and I think that’s enough to see it through.
I thought that final spot would go to Frankenstein, but the fact that it completely blanked with the VES is deeply troubling. From all accounts, The Lost Bus earned a strong reaction at the bake-off to add to its surprisingly strong response from the VES. That’s enough for me to consider it a dark horse to snatch a nomination here from a broader contender.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS PREDICTIONS:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, VES
2. F1 (Apple Original Films) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, VES
3. Superman (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, VES
4. Sinners (Warner Bros.) – CCA, VES
5. The Lost Bus (Apple Original Films) – BAFTA longlist, VES
Alternate: Frankenstein (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, CCA
