With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. We all know Avatar: The Way of Water is winning this one in a cakewalk, so it’s really just a matter of which other four films are going to watch those blue Na’vi waltz off with this one. The fact that Avatar: The Way of Water earned a record-breaking 14 nominations from the Visual Effects Society really proved how well and truly over this race is.
Top Gun: Maverick and The Batman have both scored nominations from VES, Critics’ Choice, and BAFTA, so they feel quite secure in the Oscar race. The original Black Panther failed to receive an Oscar nom, but the visual effects work on its sequel Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is far superior. It only nabbed one single nod from the VES, but it’s hard to imagine this race without a single Marvel property.
That really leaves the final spot up for grabs. And I think it’s going to come down to two dramas that aren’t your usual nominees for this category. With such a strong showing at BAFTA and mentions in several Oscars shortlist categories, All Quiet on the Western Front has really flexed its might at the tail end of the season. I think that’s enough to carry it across the line here, but don’t be surprised to see Thirteen Lives score a solo nomination here. Likewise with Nope, which has earned some nods from the critics groups for its visual effects.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS PREDICTIONS:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – BAFTA, CCA, VES
2. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, VES
3. The Batman (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA, CCA, VES
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney Studios) – CCA
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA
Alternate: Thirteen Lives (Amazon Studio) – VES
