Well, well, well. Isn’t Best Actor shaping up to be quite the unpredictable category? It’s the comeback kid versus the new kid on the block. It’s the age-old battle between an original dramatic turn versus a biopic centred on a beloved music icon. We’ve been here before. And we all know how that played out. Yes, folks. This feels very reminiscent of 2018 when Rami Malek stormed to victory with his turn as Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody.
Unlike Malek, Austin Butler hasn’t quite seen the same kind of precursor sweep. He’s deservedly nabbed nominations everywhere. And scored a win at the Golden Globes, which was entirely expected given his main competition had all but rejected his nomination from the HFPA. But Butler’s surprise victory at BAFTA really threw a curveball into this race, especially since he beat Colin Farrell on home soil. Does that make him our leader?
Brendan Fraser’s comeback has been nothing short of beautiful to behold. Early in the season, Fraser’s performance in The Whale drew widespread acclaim and he’s basically sat in the frontrunner position ever since. We knew he wasn’t winning at the Globes and his victory at Critics’ Choice was hardly a surprise. But when The Whale failed to score a nomination for Best Picture, Fraser’s campaign started looking shaky.
The last Best Actor to win from a film not nominated for Best Picture was Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart in 2009. Compared to Fraser, Bridges has a few more decades in the industry and a couple of unsuccessful Oscar nods under his belt, so his eventual win was all but preordained. But Fraser’s campaign came roaring back to life with a win at SAG and a beautiful acceptance speech to match, leaving us with the tightest of two horse races.
So, which way will the Academy go? I’ve gone back and forth on this many, many times. Fraser’s empathetic comeback narrative is usually hard for the Academy to ignore. But we already have one of those this year in the form of Ke Huy Quan. Will they really swoon over both of them? Elvis is the stronger contender overall and that bodes extremely well for Butler. He’s been nothing short of charming all season long (just look at how he escorted several women to the stage at the SAG Awards) and we know the Academy rarely resists a big, flashy biopic performance. My heart says Fraser but my head says Butler. I’m sticking with my brain on this one.
BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Austin Butler – Elvis (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
2. Brendan Fraser – The Whale (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
3. Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
4. Bill Nighy – Living (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
5. Paul Mescal – Aftersun (A24) – BAFTA, CCA
Will win: Austin Butler
Should win: Colin Farrell
Possible shocker: Bill Nighy
