Final Oscars Predictions – Best Cinematography

In 2017, Rachel Morrison (Mudbound) finally broke a 90-year-old glass ceiling to become the first female cinematographer nominated for an Academy Award. In 2021, Ari Wegner (The Power of the Dog) became the second. While many dreamed that Wegner might become the first female winner of Best Cinematography, it’s sadly no longer looking likely.

For much of awards season, this race has been a close battle between Wegner and Greig Fraser (Dune). The pair split the wins from the critics groups and both were consistently nominated at every single ceremony. While Wegner recently picked up a key win at Critics Choice, Fraser scored bigger victories with BAFTA and the American Society of Cinematographers. That pair of wins now pushes him to the front.

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In the past ten years, BAFTA and ASC have picked the same winner five times and all five went on to collect the Oscar. If Wegner had collected one of these two prizes, I’d be more inclined to say she was our frontrunner, particularly ASC, whose choice of Erik Messerschmidt (Mank) over Joshua James Richards (Nomadland) last year signalled Messerschmidt’s eventual Oscar win. Fraser’s double win makes him the clear leader.

But there’s a lot of love for Wegner’s work, so there’s a slight chance she pulls off an upset win. There’s also the possibility of voter splitting between Wegner and Fraser, leading to someone like Bruno Delbonnel (The Tragedy of Macbeth) or Janusz Kaminski (West Side Story) sneaking through to victory. It’s highly unlikely but never say never. Fraser is growing as one of the most respected cinematographers in the industry and it’s hard to see the Academy missing the chance to honour his impeccable work.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY PREDICTIONS:
1. Dune (Warner Bros.)
Greig Fraser
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
Ari Wegner
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple TV+)
Bruno Delbonnel
4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
Janusz Kaminski
5. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
Dan Laustsen