Before we get into predictions, can we just take a moment to acknowledge how this year’s line-up for Best International Feature is one of the strongest in years? The Academy could pick any of the five, and it would ultimately be an inspired choice. Alas, it’s ultimately coming down to two.
Early in the season, many thought this would be France’s to lose. And, to be honest, I’m still not quite sure what happened to It Was Just an Accident. It won the Palme d’Or at Cannes in June. It scored three Gotham Awards in early December. It earned three Golden Globe nominations, including Best Motion Picture and Director. And then…it fell off a cliff.
In its place, Norway’s Sentimental Value rose as the new frontrunner, especially after its seven Golden Globe nods and its domination of the European Film Awards. However, just like last year, a scrappy Brazilian gem was waiting in the wings to shake up this race. When The Secret Agent scored wins at both the Critics Choice Awards (where Sentimental Value bizarrely wasn’t nominated) and the Globes, we had a race on our hands, particularly after both films earned a stack of Oscar nominations in late January.
In previous years, if a non-English language film like Sentimental Value had netted nominations for Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, and four (!) acting nods, you’d presume it would take Best International Feature in a cakewalk. Yet, just last year, we saw an international film land 13 nominations and still fail to win this category. And it was bested by a Brazilian film, no less.
The same country winning this Oscar two years in a row isn’t unheard of (Italy and France have done it multiple times), but it hasn’t happened since Denmark won in 1987 and 1988, so that works against The Secret Agent. On the flipside, this would be Norway’s first win after five unsuccessful nominations.
So where does that leave us as we enter the final days before the Oscars? Just as voting opened, Sentimental Value took the BAFTA, which obviously stands as one big final campaign push. It’s coming down to a close one. There’s a lot of love and buzz out there for The Secret Agent. And it absolutely could win.
But it’s impossible to overlook how well Sentimental Value did overall with the Academy. Yes, a big nomination tally last year meant nothing for Emilia Pérez, but we know why that really fell over at the final hurdle. And that BAFTA win in the final stages makes me feel like Norway is taking this one.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE PREDICTIONS:
1. Sentimental Value (Norway) – BAFTA, GG
2. The Secret Agent (Brazil) – BAFTA, CCA, GG
3. It Was Just an Accident (France) – BAFTA, CCA, GG
4. Sirāt (Spain) – BAFTA, CCA, GG
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia) – BAFTA, GG
Will win: Sentimental Value
Should win: Sentimental Value
Possible upset: The Voice of Hind Rajab
