Final Oscars Predictions – Best Original Screenplay

With wins at the Critics Choice Awards (plus over 20 wins from the critics groups), the BAFTAs, and from the WGA, Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman screenplay has steamrolled through awards season and sits comfortably as the frontrunner for Best Original Screenplay. Fennell would be the first female winner of this category since Diablo Cody in 2007 for Juno and, if Chloé Zhao wins Adapted Screenplay for Nomadland, it will be the first time in history two solo female writers have won both screenplay categories.

There’s still the slimmest of chances Aaron Sorkin could steal this one for The Trial of the Chicago 7, particularly if the film scores an upset Best Picture victory. If Sorkin does indeed win, Nomadland should start feeling nervous about the final award of the night. While Sorkin did triumph over Fennell at the Golden Globes, that victory was likely due to the HFPA’s adoration for Sorkin’s work (he’d been previously nominated seven times with two victories including a baffling win in 2016 for Steve Jobs). Sorkin hasn’t managed to repeat that win elsewhere and it’s hard to see a path to victory for the screenwriter here.

At the end of the day, the winner of this category should fall to the most “original” screenplay of the year. Sorkin’s screenplay is based on a historical event, so it’s hard to consider it staggeringly original. Fennell’s work is pure fiction and blew people’s socks off with its pertinent themes and shocking twists and turns. She’s had a lock on this Oscar for weeks now and should deservedly take it home.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY FINAL PREDICTION:
1. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
Emerald Fennell
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Aaron Sorkin
3. Minari (A24)
Lee Isaac Chung
4. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
Abraham Marder, Darius Marder (screenplay), Derek Cianfrance (story by)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
Will Berson & Shaka King (screenplay), Will Berson & Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas (story by)

Will win: Promising Young Woman
Should win: Promising Young Woman
Possible shocker: Minari