Holding the title of being the early frontrunner for Best Picture is often a dreadful curse. Just ask Belfast, 1917, Roma, and La La Land. But, every so often, a film sails through the entirety of awards season as the Best Picture frontrunner without a blip along the way. Films like Nomadland and Slumdog Millionaire asserted their dominance from the start of their respective seasons and won literally everything along the way. This season, Oppenheimer has sailed that very course.
Maybe it’s because the film was so universally adored or Christopher Nolan is so beloved. Maybe it’s because there was no mud to sling at it or no controversies to battle against. Maybe it’s those staggering box office returns that lit a fire under audiences to return to the cinema in droves. Whatever the reason, Oppenheimer took the title of Best Picture frontrunner way back in July and nothing has damaged it since.
Nolan has been here before. When Dunkirk debuted in the summer of 2017, it was immediately proclaimed the potential future winner of Best Picture. While it would score Nolan his first nod for Best Director and a couple of tech wins, its supposed Oscar dominance never materialised. And, in all honesty, I expected something similar might happen with Oppenheimer. Sure, it would likely clean up in the technical categories, especially with Dune: Part Two out of its way, but something else would emerge to snatch Best Picture and possibly Director. I was wrong. So very wrong.
Not only has Oppenheimer made a clean sweep of key wins at the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs, the Critics Choice Awards, and with the PGA, it is likely heading towards the biggest Oscars tally we’ve seen in 15 years. Oppenheimer has completed a perfect awards season run and nothing is stopping it from winning Best Picture.
BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS:
1. Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA
2. Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA
3. Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) – BAFTA, GG, PGA
4. American Fiction (Amazon MGM Studios) – CCA, GG, PGA
5. The Holdovers (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA
6. Barbie (Warner Bros.) – CCA, GG, PGA
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (Paramount Pictures / Apple Original Films) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA
8. The Zone of Interest (A24) – GG, PGA
9. Past Lives (A24) – CCA, GG, PGA
10. Maestro (Netflix) – CCA, GG, PGA
Will win: Oppenheimer
Should win: Oppenheimer
Possible shocker: American Fiction
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