The Best Supporting Actress race has been quite the topsy turvy ride this season. We prognosticators spent the last few months agonising over who the final five nominees would be and which deserving contenders would miss out. Frontrunners for the win came and went. But the dust appears to have settled in recent weeks and we finally have a likely (and deserving) winner in the form of Minari‘s lovable grandmother Yuh-jung Youn.
After dominating the critics awards portion of the season, it was hard to tell if Youn would score a nomination or suffer a similar fate to other critics darlings like Toni Collette and Lupita Nyong’o. But she rallied to land nominations everywhere except the Golden Globes and her wins at the SAG Awards and the BAFTAs have cemented her as the frontrunner. Youn is the first Korean actor nominated for an Academy Award and her victory will make her only the second Asian actor to win this category.
While Youn’s win seems fairly certain, there’s always the chance of an upset victory in the acting races. Maria Bakalova stole focus this season with her unlikely swag of nominations (and numerous wins from the critics) for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. Bakalova deserved every piece of acclaim she’s received this year, but it’s hardly the kind of performance we usually see in awards season. A win would be genuinely wonderful, but I think we can all agree her reward is a rare nomination for a comedic performance.
When Glenn Close lost her seventh Oscar nomination in 2018 for The Wife, most presumed her next nomination would surely lead to an overdue victory. The Oscar-bait trailer for Hillbilly Elegy certainly suggested a win was on the way. But the film was crucified by critics and there are few clamouring for the Academy to reward Close for a decent performance in a woeful film. If this is to be her eighth loss, Close will now tie with the late Peter O’Toole for the most nominations without a win. Perhaps the ninth time will be the charm.
There’s very little to suggest Olivia Colman will score another upset victory like she did over Close in 2018. Sure, The Father has surged in recent weeks and landed more nominations than most assumed, but she hasn’t won a thing all season long (and couldn’t even nab a BAFTA nomination from her home crowd), so it’s not happening again. And Amanda Seyfried is just happy to be here for the first time, particularly after snubs from SAG and BAFTA. The Oscar is going to Youn, who has charmed her way through awards season and will be one of the most deserving Best Supporting Actress winners in recent history.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Yuh-jung Youn – Minari (A24)
2. Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon Studios)
3. Olivia Colman – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
4. Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
5. Amanda Seyfried – Mank (Netflix)
Will win: Yuh-jung Youn
Should win: Yuh-jung Youn
Possible shocker: Glenn Close
