In a year practically devoid of the usual crop of large-scale blockbusters, the nominee field for Best Visual Effects is dominated by films audiences watched on their televisions (or, gulp, their phones) at home. Christopher Nolan’s Tenet stands alone as the only nominee with a wide theatrical release whose relative failure reminded studios audiences clearly weren’t ready to venture back to the cinema just yet.
After winning this category at the BAFTAs, the Critics Choice Awards, and the lion’s share of critics prizes, Tenet enters the Oscars ceremony as the clear frontrunner. Visual effects supervisor Andrew Lockley is a two-time Oscar winner (Interstellar and Inception), so he’s clearly a favourite amongst Academy members. And the time-bending special effects are the kind of bombastic visual wizardry the Academy usually fawns over.
The only moment during awards season that should give us any pause is Tenet‘s surprise loss to The Midnight Sky at the Visual Effects Society Awards in the Outstanding Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature category. Granted, this award has only matched the Oscar winner four times in the past ten years, but it did signal Tenet may not be as solid a frontrunner as we suspected. The Midnight Sky has the weight of Netflix behind it, but the studio’s focus is naturally elsewhere, so it may not have the campaign support to push it over the line and it’s safe to assume Tenet takes this one.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS FINAL PREDICTION:
1. Tenet (Warner Bros.)
2. The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
3. Mulan (Disney)
4. The One and Only Ivan (Disney)
5. Love and Monsters (Paramount Pictures)
Will win: Tenet
Should win: The Invisible Man…oh, wait…
Possible shocker: Love and Monsters
