There is something pretty covert about the momentum that Robert Eggers’ Nosferatu has right now. As far as Oscars players go. But time is a funny thing (not ha ha). You just can’t help hearing the echoes of “that is just Twitter buzz” (or X, delete as appropriate) as soon as I attempt to empty my encouraging awards chances of Nosferatu onto this very page. And probably the same for most who want to push this film for a greater awards presence. It’s certainly not blind opinion, nor is it necessarily an example of the lack of Oscar expertise.
At the time of the birth of this chunk of text you are now reading, the Golden Globes were a couple of days away. They are now done, winners announced, along with the cries that Anora is dead and The Brutalist is definitely winning Best Picture. Oh dear. I told you, time is strange. Right down to when I publish this very piece, given the inevitable reactions to the Hollywood Foreign Press decision-making buzz. And that Nosferatu would win nothing there. Meanwhile, Eggers was attending a 35mm screening of his latest film. Around the same time that Nosferatu turns up once again in this constant reel of awards presence – with sound editors, and critics in both North Dakota and Chicago.
There it is again, I can hear the potential head shakes. I often wonder if it is fear itself that prevents an unbiased positivity for such a motion picture during awards season. We do not want to be wrong. It is certainly a daunting prospect for this very writer on the eve of hitting that publish button. Yes, yes, I know that in (way too) many bright eyes of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, horror films might as well dwell deep within the Carpathian Mountains, and one must not step too deeply on that land. Genre and style bias still exists in enough of a fog to hinder the chances of such a film as Nosferatu.
Those voices continue: “Look, they nominated and / or handed gold statuettes to Get Out and The Silence of the Lambs and The Sixth Sense.” Let’s be upfront and honest, the horror genre has many branches and interpretations. Psychological comes to mind. Nosferatu is not a horror film like those films are. Those are great examples of where the Academy stepped outside of their regular comfort zone, sure. But a film like Nosferatu landing a Best Picture nomination is bigger than that as pure horror goes. Clearly, The Exorcist is in the same ballpark. That’s a far greater comparison. Pure horror. And in that comparison, we say it still looks pretty slim for Nosferatu.
Between Wednesday 8th January and Sunday 12th January 2025, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences are due to put ink to paper. So to speak, as it is all online. Good timing? The nominations window opens for a limited period. A kind of small part of a very large picture on the road to this year’s final Oscar shortlists. This gives them less than a week to seriously reflect on the films they have seen in the calendar year of 2024. With the objective to make their personal choices and collectively decide what goes into the awards history books.
Will they sort their Letterboxd lists by their highest ratings? Will they shuffle through their physical screeners for last minute inspiration? What’s App their film buddies – and fellow voters – to get a feel for what they ‘like’? Or, perhaps they will just Google “Oscars Predictions” where various awards-friendly, super-insightful sites conveniently provide concise, updated, ranked lists, arguably doing a lot of the work for them?
The ever-revolving doors of Oscar-guessers dissecting what the Academy will or won’t do, can be influential on their actual voting. Whether you accept that or not. So, in turn some of the AMPAS folk might follow the trend and fill out their ballots accordingly. I don’t hear or see it spoken of much anywhere, but are the awards editors of our grand community fully aware of their potential prediction abilities? You might say shaping abilities. I am not saying what we publish in our outlets is translated word for word to the ballot page. But, please, never underestimate the power of journalism.
Or momentum. What huge swings momentum can provide. Sometimes like glue. At the close of the year, when we’re dizzy from all the trade ads, the YouTubers, the prediction lists – months and months of them – we turn to face what is right in front of us, what is current, what are people talking about. If just for a breather, of course. And momentum has a timely, powerful potential right now.
This is why I mention, at the start of January, that I claim Nosferatu to perhaps have the most fresh-faced of momentum in the cinemasphere. And has had for a few weeks now. Weeks is a short time where a lot can happen in filmland. It doesn’t mean that this is winning Best Picture. Nor does it mean it is even getting nominated in this category. But that Christmas Day release now seems extremely influential, timing-wise.
Without diverting off the track too much, Christmas Day releases are an interesting bunch. For some, like The Wolf of Wall Street, it continued to really build up that Best Actor prediction banter – but it just felt marginally too late. Phantom Thread and Paul Thomas Anderson leap-frogged ahead of many contenders into Best Picture and Best Director nominations respectively. Similarly with 1917, building very heavyweight status weeks before the release, was looking unstoppable. Until a certain South Korean picture proved to us all that it truly was the strongest fish in the pond the whole time.
We look back over the years. What has aged well. What we loved, and what we didn’t. What we knew wouldn’t be nominated, and what would. Even the more ludicrous surprises made sense when we look at the consensus components. How many of you out there would have relished and respected the inclusion of Gone Girl, Sicario, First Reformed, over the likes of The Theory of Everything, Bridge of Spies, Bohemian Rhapsody? We can all write extensive columns on what happened in each of those years, respectively or collectively. And how. And why. And with feelings.
I am still not emotionally over the disappointment of The Florida Project being swept aside. And certainly not for a film like Darkest Hour to land a Best Picture nomination. Yes, we saw both outcomes coming. Yes, we understood how Oscary one perhaps was (not to mention the anchor of a sure-fire Best Actor winner), and that the other seemed to have been slipping away for a while. Just like Willem Dafoe’s status as a front-runner for Best Supporting Actor. Riddled with guilt, the Academy invited Sean Baker to be a voting member just a few months later. I’m assuming, of course.
And have you asked Mr Baker what his number one choice might be this year? With over 10,000 members of the Academy across multiple branches, the Anora writer and director might not be in the minority there. But still, the ‘tastes’ of the voting contingent have branched by dipping their toes into genres previously avoided like a ship of plague-infested rats that crashed ashore. And that is largely down to, arguably, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences adding over 4,000 shiny, new members in the last 10 years.
Fear not, a full explanation of the nomination process is for a very separate discussion. But fully completed and ranked ballots are integral to the Oscar nominations, As the preferential system squeezes the selections like a sponge until enough of the lowest ranked and least selected films drip out of contention. So a lot of number one votes at the nomination stage is crucial. But so are number twos, and number threes. To a lesser extent each time, but crucial all the same.
Choices that people generally like a lot, but don’t love, might not make the cut (think number seven and number eight ranked on a decent amount of ballots). A large enough swirl of love for a choice could very well go all the way to be nominated. If enough voters make those choices. Which is why lesser seen but adored selections (I Saw the TV Glow, for example) can be easily, but sadly, predicted to miss out.
Of course, even when you step back from the barrage of hype, if you possibly can, the likes of Anora and The Brutalist are going to land many number one votes. Arguably, though, the latter will divide some – it’s no secret that many have seen this film and appreciated the monumental status while still not ranking it high personally. The film that is hovering around the third place position feels like Conclave. A film with little divide from it’s audience, likely going to receive number two, three and four votes, as much as it will number one. Which makes it a force to be reckoned with.
The really fascinating picture here is Emilia Pérez. Talk about mixed reception. But I’ve heard voices out there in the awards coverage camp talking about ignoring the internet negativity. And that in fact this film is a certainty to not only be nominated for Best Picture, but also have the highest nomination tally. The awards handed out by our Hollywood Foreign Press friends has only bolstered this notion.
Sometimes it is incredibly difficult to split yourself between the contrarian and the brutally honest in this large star-studied arena. But I still just can’t help feeling that Emilia Pérez eventual awards season place will echo my own reaction to the film. It had some startlingly great moments, but on the whole just didn’t know where to put it in my own personal, internal rankings for the year. And time takes its toll. This film has been in the filmic eye for months and months now. But where is it going to place across all the ranking ballots of the Oscar voters?
A ton of number one and two votes? I’m not so sure, to be frank. Will some voters stick it at number eight or nine purely for the “startling moments” or leave it off altogether for a Wicked or a Dune or a Sing Sing? Of course they will. Can it miss Best Picture altogether given the competition? Where the sparkle of the spotlight has completely outshone the credence of the reviews and ratings, not likely – but still possible.
Look yourself at the other films that can break in. Films like A Real Pain and A Complete Unknown are going to land on more than an ample amount of ballots, but broadly across the lower ranked end I suspect. On the flip side, solid international pictures like All We Imagine as Light and The Seed of the Sacred Fig are going to appear high up on average. But will they appear on enough ballots? And somewhere not far away, there is Nickel Boys. No secret this is getting a lot of number one votes, but how many? Hard Truths appears to have folk scrambling to actually see it. Even BAFTA didn’t seem as enthused as we suspected.
Two of the most popular choices are going to get a shed-load of number one votes. One of the most distinctive differences between Challengers and The Substance, though, is the staying power and the sheer explosive life of the latter. And owner of the most enduring momentum all season. The former suffers from early release – another awards season downfall. However, it is clawing its way back in what is an incredible feat of movie shelf life stamina.
But here we are again. And it is all about time. You’re an Academy voter, you have your ballot in front of you. How do you formulate your choices? What impacts your decision at this stage? Or can sway you from what you thought was a signed, sealed and delivered top ten of the year? The ads for the film at every turn at the moment? The film you last saw? The box office standings? Those recent Golden Globe results? The Screen Actors Guild nominations? Seeing two green arrows outside of the current Best Picture ten on GoldDerby predictions, and understanding why?
This whirlwind of writing is by no means a throttling of persuasion for Nosferatu and that so-called momentum. In truth, these words somehow made it here from a place of darkness. And where largely intended to relay the thoughts of someone just as passionate as you. We all think differently. We are all unique in our own ways.
My love for any given film and this crazy journey as I might see it, is truly valid – however many Academy voters put Nosferatu as their number one in various categories. It’s a discussion and invigorating thought-process with each passing minute. And will continue to be when that glorious day arrives on Friday 17th January 2025. When those Oscar nominations are finally announced, and the sunrise gives us the long-awaited relief.
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