Welcome To Awards Season 2022/2023 + First Oscars Predictions

With the completion of the film festivals of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto, awards season is now officially underway. The first wave of awards contenders have been unveiled for those lucky enough to be in attendance, meaning it’s time to launch Filmotomy’s coverage of the 2022/23 season. Welcome back, folks. Let’s look at what’s been seen, what’s to come, and my first Oscars predictions of the season.

As is tradition, we’ll start with the studio that took home Best Picture last year. You likely won’t need reminding that Apple TV+ made history (and broke all the rules) in 2021 as the first streaming service to take home the Academy’s top prize for CODA aka the little film that could. Many presumed the tech giant would be back in the hunt again this year with Martin Scorsese’s new film Killers of the Flower Moon. However, the film is still in post-production and is now more likely to be held back until season 2023/24. Their other potential contender Emancipation stars Will Smith aka the man who hijacked the last Oscars ceremony, leaving the film to be trapped in release limbo now. There are rumblings of a December release, but it’s all still up in the air at this point.

With that in mind, all eyes turned to TIFF and the world premiere of Peter Farrelly’s The Greatest Beer Run Ever. Toronto was where Farrelly’s Green Book really took off in 2018 before going on to win Best Picture. It doesn’t appear that’s happening again with the Zac Efron dramedy receiving a tepid response from the TIFF critics and a woeful 40% Rotten Tomatoes score. That really only leaves Causeway as Apple’s major player this year, but even that’s only truly looking like a contender for potential acting nods for Jennifer Lawrence and Brian Tyree Henry.

As of right now, Universal Pictures appears to have the strongest contender on its hands with Steven Spielberg’s deeply personal drama The Fabelmans. The film received a rousing reception at TIFF and expectedly walked away with the People’s Choice Award. All ten of the previous winners of this award have been nominated for Best Picture and three of them went on to win, so this is a great start for Spielberg’s campaign. Universal may also have a strong player with She Said, the biopic based on The New York Times investigation into Harvey Weinstein. It will debut next week at the New York Film Festival.

After earning the title of the highest-grossing film of 2022 thus far and rave reviews from critics, it’s expected Paramount Pictures will launch a full-scale Oscar campaign for Top Gun: Maverick. If the Academy is chasing ratings again this year, it’s hard to see them resisting the opportunity to have a bonafide box office smash in their nominees. Paramount will also have its hands full with Damien Chazelle’s latest, Babylon. Chazelle is still tinkering away on the final product, meaning it wasn’t ready for the first string of film festivals and will instead premiere in December. The trailer doesn’t give much away, but it’s certainly a tech contender if nothing else.

As always, Searchlight Pictures will be a major player this season, namely with Martin McDonagh’s black comedy The Banshees of Inisherin and Sam Mendes’ melodrama Empire of Light. McDonagh will be looking to replicate the Oscars success of 2017’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and the early reaction to his latest film has been just as strong. Mendes is a perennial Oscars darling by this point and teaming up with three-time nominee and previous winner Olivia Colman seemed a sure fine formula for awards success. But the initial reaction hasn’t been great (currently 50% on Rotten Tomatoes), so time will tell once the film is more widely seen. Keep an eye on Chevalier. Searchlight hasn’t given the film a release date as yet, but the response at TIFF was incredibly strong, particularly for Kelvin Harrison Jr.’s marvellous performance.

After coming achingly close to scoring their first Best Picture win last year, Netflix will be back in the hunt again this season. They’ve got a whole string of films on their books, but none really seem to have the strength of something like The Power of the Dog. Rian Johnson’s Glass Onion scored huge praise out of TIFF, but, like its predecessor, it may simply be too light for the Best Picture race. Andrew Dominik’s Blonde has completely tanked (44% on RT), but Ana de Armas may still stand a chance in the Best Actress battle. Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s Bardo hasn’t fared well with critics either (53% on RT), but it has been selected as Mexico’s submission for Best International Feature Film. And Noah Baumbach’s White Noise might also be too comedic to be a real awards player.

In my humble opinion, Netflix should immediately prioritise Edward Berger’s compelling adaptation of All Quiet on the Western Front. It’s been chosen as Germany’s selection for Best International Feature Film, but this stunning piece of cinema is worthy of consideration across the board. It was one of the best films I saw at TIFF and one of the greatest war movies of recent times. It could easily be this year’s version of Drive My Car, aka a non-English language film that breaks into the major races. It certainly deserves to.

Then there are some box office blockbusters that might be pushed into the Best Picture race in the quest for ratings. Warner Bros. is expected to launch a major campaign for Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis, especially for Austin Butler’s stunning performance. While the reviews were mildly mixed (77% on RT), audiences took to this film in a major way and the Academy might look to entice them into watching the ceremony with some major nods for this chaotic biopic. Disney’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and 20th Century Studios’ Avatar: The Way of Water are still yet to be seen, but, given both their predecessors scored major love from the Academy (and the latter came within a whisker of a Best Picture win), it’s highly plausible their sequels will achieve the same.

Two of the biggest indie players of recent awards seasons have been A24 and NEON and they’ll both be making a charge again this year. A24 has one of the most critically adored films on its hands with the Daniels’ Everything Everywhere All At Once. While the film was released way back in March, there’s still so much love for this film floating around and it should be a contender across the board. The indie studio also has Darren Aronofsky’s The Whale on its books, which is a bonafide frontrunner for Best Actor for Brendan Fraser’s incredible performance, and Charlotte Wells’ Aftersun, which currently sits on 98% on Rotten Tomatoes.

In 2019, NEON took Palm d’Or winner Parasite all the way to a Best Picture win. Could they do it again this year with Ruben Östlund’s Triangle of Sadness? A twistedly dark comedy that consistently keeps you guessing, the film may not be to everyone’s tastes, but it’s an unforgettable experience that plays well with a big crowd. NEON is also distributing Hirokazu Kore-eda’s well-received Broker, which might net Song Kang-ho the Oscar nom he should have received for Parasite.

And, finally, there are a couple of female-led major contenders in the form of Focus Features’ TÁR and United Artists Releasing’s Women Talking. Cate Blanchett is earning unanimous praise for the former and seems to be the early frontrunner for Best Actress. The latter scored a rapturous response at Telluride and TIFF with early buzz suggesting Sarah Polley might be following in the lead of Chloé Zhao, Emerald Fennell, and Jane Campion as the next female filmmaker nominated for Best Director. Expect to see Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley battle it out for Best Supporting Actress as well.

That wraps up our wider view of the entire race as it stands right now, but there are still months ahead of digging more deeply into each category plus the plethora of incoming precursor awards that generally begin to shape the way the race is playing out. Below are my first predictions for the season in 20 categories and my predicted winners in bold. Let the games begin!

BEST PICTURE

All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)
Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24)
The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
She Said (Universal Pictures)
TÁR (Focus Features)
Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)
Women Talking (United Artists Releasing)

BEST DIRECTOR

Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
Damien Chazelle – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
Daniels – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24)
Sarah Polley – Women Talking (United Artists Releasing)
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett – TÁR (Focus Features)
Olivia Colman – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
Danielle Deadwyler – Till (Orion Pictures)
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24)

BEST ACTOR

Austin Butler – Elvis (Warner Bros.)
Diego Calva – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
Brendan Fraser – The Whale (A24)
Bill Nighy – Living (Sony Pictures Classics)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jessie Buckley – Women Talking (United Artists Releasing)
Hong Chau – The Whale (A24)
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
Dolly de Leon – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)
Claire Foy – Women Talking (United Artists Releasing)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Paul Dano – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
Ben Whishaw – Women Talking (United Artists Releasing)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Babylon – Damien Chazelle (Paramount Pictures)
The Banshees of Inisherin – Martin McDonagh (Searchlight Pictures)
Everything Everywhere All At Once – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert (A24)
The Fabelmans – Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner (Universal Pictures)
Triangle of Sadness – Ruben Östlund (NEON)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – Rian Johnson (Netflix)
She Said – Rebecca Lenkiewicz (Universal Pictures)
The Whale – Samuel D. Hunter (A24)
White Noise – Noah Baumbach (Netflix)
Women Talking – Sarah Polley (United Artists Releasing)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

All Quiet on the Western Front – James Friend (Netflix)
Avatar: The Way of Water – Russell Carpenter (20th Century Studios)
Babylon – Linus Sandgren (Paramount Pictures)
Empire of Light – Roger Deakins (Searchlight Pictures)
The Fabelmans – Janusz Kaminski (Universal Pictures)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Babylon – Mary Zophres (Paramount Pictures)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Ruth E. Carter (Walt Disney Studios)
Elvis – Catherine Martin (Warner Bros.)
The Fabelmans – Mark Bridges (Universal Pictures)
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris – Jenny Beavan (Focus Features)

BEST FILM EDITING

Babylon – Tom Cross (Paramount Pictures)
Elvis – Matt Villa, Jonathan Redmond (Warner Bros.)
Everything Everywhere All At Once – Paul Rogers (A24)
The Fabelmans – Michael Kahn, Sara Broshar (Universal Pictures)
Top Gun: Maverick – Chris Lebenzon, Eddie Hamilton (Paramount Pictures)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
The Batman (Warner Bros.)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney Studios)
Elvis (Warner Bros.)
The Whale (A24)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Babylon – Justin Hurwitz (Paramount Pictures)
The Batman – Michael Giacchino (Warner Bros.)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Ludwig Göransson (Walt Disney Studios)
The Fabelmans – John Williams (Universal Pictures)
Women Talking – Hildur Guðnadóttir (United Artists Releasing)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)
“Naatu Naatu” – RRR (HR Pictures)
“Nobody Like U” – Turning Red (Disney/Pixar)
“This Is A Life” – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24)
“Lift Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney Studios)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Avatar: The Way of Water – Dylan Cole, Ben Procter (20th Century Studios)
Babylon – Florencia Martin (Paramount Pictures)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Hannah Beachler (Walt Disney Studios)
Elvis – Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy (Warner Bros.)
The Fabelmans – Rick Carter (Universal Pictures)

BEST SOUND

Avatar: The Way of Water – Dylan Cole, Ben Procter (20th Century Studios)
The Batman (Warner Bros.)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney Studios)
Elvis (Warner Bros.)
Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)
The Batman (Warner Bros.)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney Studios)
Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24)
Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (A24)
Strange World (Walt Disney Studios)
Turning Red (Disney/Pixar)
Wendell & Wild (Netflix)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE