If we ever needed proof that the critics awards can often mean very little, we need only look to this year’s Best Supporting Actor race. With almost 30 wins, Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) has been the undisputed critics’ darling this season. When Smit-McPhee collected a Golden Globe in January, it looked like he may be the rare premature favourite who continues to dominate all season long. Then the tide turned towards someone else.
After a win early in the season at the Gotham Awards, Troy Kotsur (CODA) has steamrolled his way through the remainder of the major awards with victories at the SAG Awards, BAFTA, Critics Choice, and the Independent Spirit Awards. Even if CODA hadn’t firmed as a Best Picture favourite, Kotsur would be the undeniable frontrunner. But the fact his film is on the cusp of a come-from-nowhere Best Picture victory just solidifies Kotsur’s chances even further.
It’s also helped Kotsur has been giving gorgeous and humble acceptance speeches every time he’s won this season. It shouldn’t matter, but knowing a winner will give a memorable Oscars speech always helps their chances just that little bit more. And he will be the first male deaf actor to win an Oscar. You’d be hard-pressed to find many Academy members who don’t want to see that occur.
Is there still a chance for Smit-McPhee? Well, sure. Anything could happen, especially if everyone is now underestimating The Power of the Dog and it actually rallies in the final days. But the rise of CODA is impossible to ignore and Kotsur’s run of success in the latter stages of the season make him almost unbeatable.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Troy Kotsur – CODA (Apple TV+)
2. Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
3. Ciarán Hinds – Belfast (Focus Features)
4. Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
5. J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)
Will win: Troy Kotsur
Should win: Kodi Smit-McPhee
Possible shocker: Jesse Plemons
