Best Adapted Screenplay Oscars Predictions (February)

It seems highly likely Chloé Zhao will add a screenwriting Oscar to match her Best Director prize. The Nomadland screenplay remains in front for the time being, even without a WGA nomination where it was deemed ineligible. Zhao has collected over a dozen screenwriting prizes with the critics groups, so the Academy could be next.

The one screenplay waiting in the wings to halt Zhao’s potential double victory is Kemp Powers’ One Night in Miami. For those Academy members who prefer their scripts with meaty dialogue and impassioned monologues, it’s the obvious choice over something more subtle like Nomadland.

The biggest shocks from the WGA nominations were the snubs of First Cow and I’m Thinking of Ending Things, which were both eligible for consideration. The latter has collected the second-most number of wins from the critics awards, and that may be all it has to settle with this season. As for First Cow, if it fails to nab a single nomination, it will be the first New York Critics Circle winner for Best Film not to receive an Oscar nomination in any category.

There’s still a good chance Kelly Reichardt and Jonathan Raymond snatch that fifth spot, but the Academy could just as easily ignore it in favour of a broader contender like The Father or even Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. The latter scored a WGA nomination and the Academy did nominate its predecessor in the Original Screenplay category.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao
2. One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios)
Kemp Powers
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Ruben Santiago-Hudson
4. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller
5. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Luke Davies, Paul Greengrass

MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon Studios)
Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Swimer
First Cow (A24)
Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
I’m Thinking of Ending Things (Netflix)
Charlie Kaufman
Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)
Kata Wéber
The White Tiger (Netflix)
Ramin Bahrani