Best Adapted Screenplay Oscars Predictions (January)

No change with my frontrunner this month, as Chloé Zhao’s Nomadland screenplay continues to steamroll along. Whether exhaustion starts to set in and Academy voters will be looking for an alternative remains to be seen. Given it’s becoming all but a certainty Zhao will win Best Director, it would echo Bong Joon-ho’s double victory last year to also award her with an Oscar for screenwriting.

If there are any spoilers waiting in the wings, it has to be the two play adaptations, One Night in Miami and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Both are filled with powerful, lengthy monologues and fiery exchanges, which is usually the Academy’s cup of tea. The other play adaptation in contention slips out of the top five this month, solely on the fact the campaign of The Father still hasn’t quite taken off.

In its place in the top 5 is News of the World, namely due to its surprise nomination at the USC Scripter Awards. I still maintain the film has the potential to overperform with the Academy and a screenplay nomination wouldn’t be the biggest of shocks. While a nod from USC isn’t a guarantee for an Oscar nomination (they matched 4/5 last year), it’s a solid start for Paul Greengrass’ western epic.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao
2. One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios)
Kemp Powers
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Ruben Santiago-Hudson
4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Luke Davies, Paul Greengrass
5. First Cow (A24)
Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond

MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon Studios)
Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Swimer
The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller
French Exit (Sony Pictures Classics)
Patrick deWitt
Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
Vanessa Taylor
I’m Thinking of Ending Things (Netflix)
Charlie Kaufman
The Mauritanian
M.B. Traven, Rory Haines, Sohrab Noshirvani
The Personal History of David Copperfield (Searchlight Pictures)
Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci
Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)
Kata Wéber
The Prom (Netflix)
Chad Beguelin, Bob Martin
The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Hulu)
Suzan-Lori Parks