Best Adapted Screenplay Oscars Predictions (November)

With numerous gripping, dialogue-heavy scenes and a pertinent narrative that connects the past and the present, One Night in Miami moves into frontrunner position this month. Kemp Powers is likely to be a double nominee (he also co-wrote Original Screenplay contender Soul) and it seems unlikely he will walk away with two losses.

After a strong showing at the Gotham Award nominations, it seems unfathomable the Academy won’t acknowledge Kelly Reichardt’s First Cow in some way. In recent years, small indie films have a knack of landing just one nomination for their screenplay (First Reformed, The Lobster, 20th Century Women), and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see First Cow repeat the same.

Elsewhere, Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm joins the race and could easily nab one of the five nomination slots. While comedies rarely get acknowledged by the Academy, the original was nominated in this category back in 2007. Could Sacha Baron Cohen be a double nominee this year?

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios)
Kemp Powers
2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Ruben Santiago-Hudson
4. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller
5. First Cow (A24)
Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond

MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon Studios)
Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Swimer
Cherry (AppleTV+)
Jessica Goldberg, Andela Russo-Otstot
French Exit (Sony Pictures Classics)
Patrick deWitt
Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
Vanessa Taylor
I’m Thinking of Ending Things (Netflix)
Charlie Kaufman
News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Luke Davies, Paul Greengrass
The Personal History of David Copperfield (Searchlight Pictures)
Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci
Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)
Kata Wéber
The Prom (Netflix)
Chad Beguelin, Bob Martin
The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Paramount Pictures)
Suzan-Lori Parks