Best Original Screenplay Oscars Predictions (November)

Aaron Sorkin is still sitting pretty in the frontrunner spot for The Trial of the Chicago 7 this month. At this point, it’s Sorkin’s to lose, but there’s a long way to go yet. Its release back in mid-September now feels like a lifetime ago. Time will tell if Netflix debuted the film a touch too early and the film will run out of steam in this extended awards season.

While the reaction to Mank has been mostly positive, many have taken issues with the late Jack Fincher’s screenplay feeling too cold and methodical. And there will be plenty of Academy voters who take exception with its bluntly obvious political undertones. Fun fact – an Oscar for writing hasn’t been award posthumously since Sidney Howard in 1939 for Gone With the Wind.

Elsewhere, Minari and Promising Young Woman sneak into my top five predictions this month. Both films are starting to be more widely seen and the buzz is growing louder and louder every day. And don’t discount Eliza Hittman’s brilliant screenplay for Never Rarely Sometimes Always. It may not be a strong contender across the board, but could score a surprise nod here.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Aaron Sorkin
2. Mank (Netflix)
Jack Fincher
3. Minari (A24)
Lee Isaac Chung
4. Soul (Disney)
Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers
5. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
Emerald Fennell

MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Ammonite (Neon)
Francis Lee
Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
The Forty-Year-Old Version (Netflix)
Radha Blank
I’m Your Woman
Julia Hart, Jordan Horowitz
Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
Will Berson and Shaka King (screenplay), Keith Lucas and Kenny Lucas (story by)
Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features)
Eliza Hittman
On the Rocks (AppleTV+)
Sofia Coppola
Over the Moon (Netflix)
Jennifer Yee McDevitt, Audrey Wells
Palm Springs (NEON)
Andy Siara
Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
Abraham Marder, Darius Marder (screenplay), Derek Cianfrance (story by)