Let’s just take a moment to appreciate the Academy for refusing to bow to the trend and nominate Belfast for Best Cinematography. Look, it’s a charming film with many impressive attributes. Its cinematography is not one of them. Instead, they did the right thing and gave Janusz Kaminski a deserving nomination for West Side Story; something BAFTA and the American Society of Cinematographers strangely did not.
The cinematography race remains a close battle between Greig Fraser for Dune and Ari Wegner for The Power of the Dog. Honestly, I’m still not sure which way this will go. Both truly deserve it and both have experienced the same preseason success as each other. As the first female winner of Best Cinematography, Wegner’s victory would be historic and long overdue, so perhaps that will give her the edge.
But what may give Fraser an advantage is currently having another film in cinemas featuring his stellar cinematography. The rave response to Fraser’s spectacular work on The Batman is giving him an additional campaign push Wegner does not have. His name is everywhere at the moment, and that can only be seen as a good thing once voting commences in a few weeks.
Is there a case to be made for the other nominees? Absolutely. Wegner and Fraser could split the votes and Kaminski or Bruno Delbonnel (The Tragedy of Macbeth) sneak through to victory. Now that West Side Story is streaming on Disney+, there’s been a lot of online chatter about Kaminski’s stunning cinematography. Additional industry noise is a wonderful thing just before voting starts.
So what will shape this race before Oscar voting commences on March 17? BAFTA and Critics Choice will reveal their winners on March 13. All five nominees are present at the latter, while West Side Story is missing at BAFTA. But the real key ceremony could be the American Society of Cinematographers on March 20, where West Side Story is also missing. Last year, Erik Messerschmidt’s upset ASC victory for Mank heralded his eventual Oscar win over presumed frontrunner Joshua James Richards for Nomadland. All eyes will be on ASC to see who they select this year.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY PREDICTIONS:
1. The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
Ari Wegner
2. Dune (Warner Bros.)
Greig Fraser
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple TV+)
Bruno Delbonnel
4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
Janusz Kaminski
5. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
Dan Laustsen
