Best Original Screenplay Oscars Predictions (December)

While the five nominees for Adapted Screenplay are almost set in stone, the race for Original Screenplay is overloaded with potential contenders. And picking just five is nigh on impossible right now. In other words, it’s an absolute bloodbath. Some awful snubs are on the cards. But who will miss out?

Aaron Sorkin hasn’t picked up any critics awards as yet, but his screenplay for The Trial of the Chicago 7 still remains out in front, especially with the enormous campaign Netflix has already launched for the film. Just before Christmas, awards voters were sent a glossy coffee table book featuring production notes, stills, and Sorkin’s entire screenplay. Netflix didn’t come to play with this one.

The big winner for Original Screenplay with the critics groups so far is Eliza Hittman’s Never Rarely Sometimes Always. Hittman has taken the prize from the critics of New York, Chicago, and Indiana, and could easily walk away with a few more in 2021. But it still remains to be seen if the film can prove equally successful at the major awards.

With a release date for Judas and the Black Messiah now confirmed for February, you’d have to believe Will Berson and Shaka King’s screenplay will score a nod if the film proves to be a major contender. But which film could you shift to make room for it? Call me crazy, but Mank could be the most vulnerable. Critics unanimously raved about the film’s technical elements, but few were praising the late Jack Fincher’s screenplay.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Aaron Sorkin
2. Minari (A24)
Lee Isaac Chung
3. Mank (Netflix)
Jack Fincher
4. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
Emerald Fennell
5. Soul (Disney)
Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers

MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Ammonite (Neon)
Francis Lee
Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
The Forty-Year-Old Version (Netflix)
Radha Blank
I’m Your Woman
Julia Hart, Jordan Horowitz
Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
Will Berson and Shaka King (screenplay), Keith Lucas and Kenny Lucas (story by)
Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features)
Eliza Hittman
On the Rocks (AppleTV+)
Sofia Coppola
Over the Moon (Netflix)
Jennifer Yee McDevitt, Audrey Wells
Palm Springs (NEON)
Andy Siara
Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
Abraham Marder, Darius Marder (screenplay), Derek Cianfrance (story by)