In last month’s piece, I suggested First Cow could be acknowledged with a single nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay. With its win for Best Film from the New York Film Critics Circle, this now seems all but a certainty. In the 86-year history of the NYFCC, every film that won their top prize has received at least one Oscar nomination. While First Cow is on the periphery in the other major races, a screenplay nod now looks highly likely.
There’s no change to the top five this month, but with such a strong showing at the critics awards, Nomadland moves back into the frontrunner position for Chloé Zhao’s screenplay. While there’s still a long way to go, Nomadland just keeps steamrolling along, and you’d have to think if it takes Best Picture, it’s also winning Best Adapted Screenplay as well.
This is one of the least exciting categories this year with these five screenplays already feeling like locks. The only true contender that could still sneak in would be Charlie Kaufman’s I’m Thinking of Ending Things. Kaufman has received three wins with the critics groups (Boston, Boston Online, and Florida), but it’s still anyone’s guess how the eccentric film will play with the Academy.
Also, keep an eye on News of the World. While the film hasn’t received the same rave reviews as its competitors, it’s the kind of old-fashioned classic that will play extremely well with older members of the Academy. I still have this nagging suspicion it’s going to overperform (much like The Two Popes last year), meaning a screenplay nod wouldn’t be out of the question.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao
2. One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios)
Kemp Powers
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Ruben Santiago-Hudson
4. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller
5. First Cow (A24)
Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon Studios)
Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Swimer
Cherry (AppleTV+)
Jessica Goldberg, Andela Russo-Otstot
French Exit (Sony Pictures Classics)
Patrick deWitt
Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
Vanessa Taylor
I’m Thinking of Ending Things (Netflix)
Charlie Kaufman
News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Luke Davies, Paul Greengrass
The Personal History of David Copperfield (Searchlight Pictures)
Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci
Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)
Kata Wéber
The Prom (Netflix)
Chad Beguelin, Bob Martin
The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Hulu)
Suzan-Lori Parks
