There were no huge shocks when the Academy announced the nominations for Best Original Song. Alright, only four of my five predictions were correct. It was foolish of me not to anticipate yet another nomination for Diane Warren. The music branch holds Warren in such high esteem (12 nominations over three decades), yet that never seems to translate to a win. And it’s unlikely to this time either. Maybe the 13th time will be the charm for Diane.
Golden Globe and the Hollywood Music in Media Award winner Billie Eilish remains out in front this month for the title track from No Time to Die. Along with Warren, Eilish was the only Oscar nominee to score a nod from the Society of Composers and Lyricists, who will announce their winners on March 8. But after wins for Adele in 2012 and Sam Smith in 2015, Bond exhaustion could see the Academy look elsewhere this year.
While Beyoncé’s “Be Alive” from King Richard is still a formidable contender, Eilish’s main competitor now appears to be Tony, Grammy, and Emmy Award winner Lin-Manuel Miranda for “Dos Orguitas” from Encanto. While it’s painfully obvious Disney should have submitted #1 smash hit “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” for Oscar consideration, the soundtrack itself has been equally successful. The Academy may want to award “Dos Orguitas” as a way of honouring Miranda’s collective work as a whole. And it would make Miranda an EGOT winner in the process.
So what will shape this race before Oscar voting commences on March 17? It’s unlikely the SCL awards will have much of an impact, but a win for Eilish would obviously be great publicity. That only leaves the Critics Choice Awards on March 13, where Eilish, Miranda, and Beyoncé are all nominated. Their winner for Best Song has matched the Academy’s choice four times in the past five years.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG PREDICTIONS:
1. “No Time to Die” – No Time to Die (Universal Pictures)
Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
2. “Dos Oruguitas” – Encanto (Disney)
Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda
3. “Be Alive” – King Richard (Warner Bros.)
Music and Lyric by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter
4. “Down to Joy” – Belfast (Focus Features)
Music and Lyric by Van Morrison
5. “Somehow You Do” – Four Good Days (Vertical Entertainment)
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
