With the unveiling of the Oscars shortlist for Best Original Song, we now know the final 15 contenders in line for this award. But with that news came the surprise snubs of tracks like “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (a song I once had in my #1 position), “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom, late-breaker “Tigress & Tweed” from The United States vs. Billie Holiday, “Poverty Porn” from The Forty-Year-Old Version, and “Carried With You” from Onward.
On the flip side, the shortlist did reveal the potential strength of songs we may have been overlooking like “Rain Song” from Minari, “Green” from Sound of Metal, “Make It Work” from Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey, and “Show Me Your Soul” from Mr Soul!. That latter pick is particularly surprising, given the Academy didn’t shortlist Mr Soul! for Best Documentary Feature. Can one of these make the final five?
It was a wonderful moment to see “Húsavík (My Hometown)” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga land on the shortlist. I’ve been touting this track as a genuine contender since October and it’s never once left my top five. “Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm also made it onto the shortlist, which might signify those concerns over Maria Bakalova’s chances at a Best Supporting Actress nod are overblown.
“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami remains in the frontrunner position as we head towards the nominations announcement on March 15. Leslie Odom Jr.’s chances at Best Supporting Actor appear to be cooling, so his best shot may lay here instead. His biggest competition will undoubtedly be “lo Sì (Seen)” and 11-time Oscars bridesmaid Diane Warren. Game on.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG PREDICTIONS:
1. “Speak Now” – One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios)
Leslie Odom Jr. and Sam Ashworth
2. “lo Sì (Seen)” – The Life Ahead (Netflix)
Diane Warren
3. “Húsavík (My Hometown)” – Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (Netflix)
Fat Max Gsus, Rickard Göransson, and Savan Kotecha
4. “Fight For You” – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
H.E.R., Dernst Emile II, and Tiara Thomas
5. “Turntables” – All In: The Fight for Democracy (Amazon Studios)
Janelle Monáe, Nathaniel Irvin III, and George “George 2.0.” A. Peters II
MAJOR CONTENDERS:
“Free” – The One and Only Ivan (Disney)
Diane Warren
“Green” – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
Abraham Marder
“Hear My Voice” – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyrics by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite
“Loyal Brave True” – Mulan (Disney+)
Jamie Hartman, Harry Gregson-Williams, Rosi Golan and Billy Crabtree
“Make It Work” – Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey (Netflix)
John Stephens
“Never Break” – Giving Voice (Netflix)
John Legend, Nasri Atweh, Benjamin Hudson McIldowie, and Greg Wells
“Rain Song” – Minari (A24)
Emile Mosseri and Stefanie Hong
“See What You’ve Done” – Belly of the Beast (Independent Lens)
Mary J. Blige, Darhyl Camper, Jr., Denisia Andrews, and Brittany Coney
“Show Me Your Soul” – Mr. Soul! + (Shoes in Bed Productions)
Music by Robert Glasper; Lyrics by Muhammed Ayers
“Wuhan Flu” – Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon Studios)
Sacha Baron Cohen, Erran Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Swimer, Jena Friedman, Jim Russell, and Jerry Holleman
