Predicting the Academy’s final five picks for Best Supporting Actor was a difficult task and there were very few who saw a nomination for J.K. Simmons coming. Given Being the Ricardos underperformed overall, Simmons’ nomination is particularly odd. Jesse Plemons’ nomination for The Power of the Dog was also somewhat surprising. While Plemons did land a BAFTA nod, he’s been absent practically everywhere else this season.
Plemons’ co-star Kodi Smit-McPhee has dominated the precursor portion of this season with over 25 wins from the critics groups and a Golden Globe victory. An Oscar win would make him the second youngest actor to win this category, but that may actually work against him. The Academy loves to honour young female actors but seems to have an odd aversion to doing the same for their male counterparts. Smit-McPhee remains a strong contender, especially if The Power of the Dog snatches Best Picture, but the tide feels like it’s beginning to turn.
And the tide is definitely turning towards Troy Kotsur for his scene-stealing turn in CODA. Kotsur has landed nominations everywhere this season and his victory at the SAG Awards proved he’s now the one to beat. In the last five years, the SAG winner has gone on to claim the Oscar every single time, so history is on Kotsur’s side here. CODA‘s SAG ensemble victory highlighted how much actors love this film, and they will want to reward it with something.
So what will shape this race before Oscar voting commences on March 17? BAFTA and Critics Choice will reveal their winners on March 13. If Kotsur prevails at both, this race is done and dusted. If Smit-McPhee can nab one, we may have a battle on our hands. It’s one of the closest categories of the season with Kotsur slightly in front…for now.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Troy Kotsur – CODA (Apple TV+)
2. Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
3. Ciarán Hinds – Belfast (Focus Features)
4. Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
5. J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)
