It’s still very early days, but it already feels like we have three contenders locked in for Best Supporting Actor in Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), and Paul Mescal (Hamnet). Naturally, it helps this trio all find themselves in strong Best Picture contenders, so we’re really just looking to those final two spots up for grabs for numerous possibilities.
Frankenstein has now been more widely seen and, surprisingly, received stronger acclaim than it received at the fall festivals (85% from critics, 95% from audiences on Rotten Tomatoes). Much of that praise has fallen on Jacob Elordi and his breakout role as the creature, thus pushing him into my top five for this month. It seems clear now that Netflix will likely make this its awards season priority. A nod from the Gotham Awards is a great start to his campaign.
That could mean someone like Adam Sandler suffers if Jay Kelly isn’t given as strong a push from Netflix. The film could see a resurgence if it also receives a strong reaction from critics and audiences when it drops in mid-November. But Sandler has been someone on the cusp of his first Oscar nomination twice now, so maybe that “overdue” narrative will be enough to carry him through.
The biggest question mark right now centres on Sinners and if either Delroy Lindo or Miles Caton can break in and snatch a nod. Lindo is a veteran, Caton is a newcomer. Both are narratives the Academy loves to fall for. It’s undeniable Sinners is looking at a huge tally of nominations across the board, and one of the two could be swept along for the ride. Neither scored a Gotham Award nod, but the entire ensemble is being honoured, so perhaps that explains it.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value (NEON) – Gotham
2. Sean Penn – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
3. Paul Mescal – Hamnet (Focus Features)
4. Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly (Netflix) – Gotham
5. Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein (Netflix) – Gotham
IN CONTENTION
Jonathan Bailey – Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
Miles Caton – Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Bradley Cooper – Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures)
Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – Gotham
Akira Emoto – Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures)
Ben Foster – Christy (Black Bear)
Jacobi Jupe – Hamnet (Focus Features)
Delroy Lindo – Sinners (Warner Bros.)
William H. Macy – Train Dreams (Netflix)
Josh O’Connor – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
Lewis Pullman – The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures)
Jeremy Strong – Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century Studios)
