In January, Dune continued to essentially sweep with the critics groups who award a prize for visual effects. It’s now claimed 15 wins and scored a field-leading six nominations from the Visual Effects Society, which just strengthens its position as our Best Visual Effects frontrunner. While Dune faces tougher battles in other tech categories, it’s really got this one all sewn up at this point.
So what can the nominations for the Visual Effects Society Awards tell us about this year’s race? The six nominees for Outstanding Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature are Dune, Godzilla vs Kong, No Time to Die, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, and Spider-Man: No Way Home. Last year, just two of the nominees in this category went on to an Oscar nod, but it was a strange year for the category, so I wouldn’t read too much into that.
I think it’s likely five of those six nominees will form the Academy’s picks. There’s a chance something like Free Guy or Ghostbusters: Afterlife scores a surprise nomination, but if the VES couldn’t give either film at least one nomination, I can’t see the Academy branch feeling differently.
It’s tough predicting which of those six will be the unfortunate contender to miss out. Spider-Man, Shang-Chi, and Godzilla vs. Kong all nabbed multiple VES nominations, so they feel safe in the five with Dune. That leaves that fifth spot up for grabs, and my feeling is No Time to Die takes it. It overperformed when the Oscars shortlists were released, so it just seems like the film with more buzz.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS PREDICTIONS:
1. Dune (Warner Bros.)
2. Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sony Pictures)
3. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Disney)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (Warner Bros.)
5. No Time to Die (MGM)
IN CONTENTION
Black Widow (Disney)
Eternals (Disney)
Free Guy (Disney)
Ghostbusters: Afterlife (Sony Pictures)
The Matrix Resurrections (Warner Bros.)
