With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. And, with BAFTA nominations coming five days after the Academy’s announcement, we’re flying without that typical precursor stat. At least we have their longlists for some reference.
We have three films with nods from the American Society of Cinematographers, the British Society of Cinematographers, and the Critics Choice Awards, plus appear on the BAFTA longlist: Sinners, One Battle After Another, and Frankenstein. Consider them locked in for Oscar nods. Train Dreams is only missing at BSC, but it was overlooked in favour of six-time BSC nominee Seamus McGarvey (Die My Love), so I wouldn’t read too much into that.
For that final spot, it should be a no-brainer for something like the gorgeous cinematography in Hamnet, especially coming from two-time Oscar nominee Łukasz Žal. But the fact he missed with both ASC and BSC is rather stunning. Bizarrely, Źal had the exact same trajectory in 2024 for The Zone of Interest, which ultimately failed to land a Best Cinematography Oscar nomination. History says the same is expected here.
Based on those stats, it’s impossible not to predict Marty Supreme for the fifth slot. It’s got those ASC and BSC nods. It’s on the BAFTA longlist. Hamnet could still pull it off (and, frankly, I hope it does), but sometimes you’ve gotta ignore your heart and go with your head.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY PREDICTIONS:
1. Sinners – Autumn Durald Arkapaw (Warner Bros.) – ASC, BAFTA longlist, BSC CCA
2. One Battle After Another – Michael Bauman (Warner Bros.) – ASC, BAFTA longlist, BSC CCA
3. Frankenstein – Dan Laustsen (Netflix) – ASC, BAFTA longlist, BSC, CCA
4. Train Dreams – Adolpho Veloso (Netflix) – ASC, BAFTA longlist, CCA
5. Marty Supreme – Darius Khondji (A24) – ASC, BAFTA longlist, BSC
Alternate: Hamnet – Lukasz Zal (Focus Features) – BAFTA longlist, CCA
