With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. It’s looking like the final five nominees for Best Original Score will be dominated by previous winners in the form of Justin Hurwitz (Babylon), John Williams (The Fabelmans), Alexandre Desplat (Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio), and Hildur Guðnadóttir (Women Talking).
Hurwitz leads with wins from the critics groups, a Golden Globe victory, and nominations from BAFTA and the Critics Choice Awards so he’s sitting at the top of the pack for now. Is there a chance he’s snubbed of a nod again like he was for First Man in 2018? It’s plausible, but he feels much more secure this year. He’s only missing a nomination at the Hollywood Music in Media Awards, but I suspect they just didn’t see Babylon in time.
Williams missed a BAFTA nod (he wasn’t even longlisted), but that was part of a broader dismissal of The Fabelmans, so it wasn’t surprising. He’s music royalty and the Academy rarely miss a chance to give him a nomination. His 52nd nod is all but assured. Desplat is the only contender with nominations at all four major precursors, so consider him locked in.
Guðnadóttir missed out on a BAFTA nomination, but she’s picked up wins from Critics Choice and HMMA and she’s hugely admired by her fellow musicians, so I think she’s safe too. That leaves the fifth spot up for grabs. The overall love for The Banshees of Inisherin should be enough to nab the final slot for Carter Burwell, but if the Academy fawn over All Quiet on the Western Front like BAFTA did, don’t be surprised to see Volker Bertelmann snatch someone else’s spot.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE PREDICTIONS:
1. Babylon – Justin Hurwitz (Paramount Pictures) – BAFTA, GG, CCA
2. The Fabelmans – John Williams (Universal Pictures) – GG, CCA, HMMA
3. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – Alexandre Desplat (Netflix) – BAFTA, GG, CCA, HMMA
4. Women Talking – Hildur Guðnadóttir (United Artists Releasing) – BAFTA longlist, GG, CCA, HMMA
5. The Banshees of Inisherin – Carter Burwell (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, GG, HMMA
Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front – Volker Bertelmann (Netflix) – BAFTA
