From the moment we heard Will Smith (King Richard) would be playing the role of Richard Williams, father of tennis superstars Venus and Serena, we knew it had the potential to be an Oscar-bait performance. While Smith only has two Oscar nominations to his name, his status as a genuine movie star for almost three decades gives him the “overdue” narrative that’s always hard to beat. And that’s precisely how awards season has played out.
While Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) expectedly dominated with the critics groups, Smith took control of this race with a win at the Golden Globes win in January. Since then, he’s collected a SAG Award, a BAFTA, and a Critics Choice Award for a clean sweep of the major awards. Along with Ariana Debose, he’s the only acting contender with this quartet of victories, making Smith essentially unbeatable.
The fact King Richard nabbed six nominations including Best Picture proved there was a lot of love for this film with Academy members. It’s a rousing crowdpleaser and Smith knocks it out of the park with the best performance he’s given in well over a decade. You be hard-pressed to find many voters who don’t adore this man. They truly want to see him win.
Is there still a case to be made for a Cumberbatch upset? To be blunt, no. The fact Cumberbatch couldn’t even defeat Smith on home soil at BAFTA told us everything we needed to know about this race. I’d say there’s a stronger chance of a Smith and Cumberbatch vote split and Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…BOOM!) steals it. But his time will come one day. As will Cumberbatch’s. This is Smith’s year and the Oscar is his.
BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Will Smith – King Richard (Warner Bros.)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
3. Andrew Garfield – tick, tick… BOOM! (Netflix)
4. Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple TV+)
5. Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)
Will win: Will Smith
Should win: Benedict Cumberbatch
Possible shocker: Andrew Garfield
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