The last three years of Best Actress races have all been so unpredictable and chaotic that it’s starting to feel like we may never see a frontrunner sweep the entire season for some time to come. Maybe that says something about the incredible state of leading female performances and how genuinely difficult it’s becoming for awards shows to decide on a consensus winner. Much like last year, this battle is boiling down to two contenders who both deserve to win and who both have the necessary key precursor season victories that would normally cement them as the Oscar frontrunner.
From the moment Poor Things debuted to the world at various film festivals, the raves for Emma Stone’s astonishing performance began. And she instantly became the Best Actress leader. Working against Stone was the fact her Oscar win for La La Land in 2016 might be too recent to see her net a second trophy. Then again, if Frances McDormand could win two Oscars in the space of four years, who’s to say Stone couldn’t do the same in eight?
Stone’s biggest competitor had already emerged way back in May when Killers of the Flower Moon debuted at Cannes and Lily Gladstone earned an equally rapturous response for her quiet but compelling turn. Once more people had seen the film come October, it was clear Best Actress was heading for an almighty competition between Gladstone and Stone. There was also a lot of love for Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), but I think we all knew this was boiling to two very different but equally impressive performances.
Then the critics awards started rolling in where Stone and Gladstone were essentially splitting the wins. Stone scored with LAFCA and NFCS, Gladstone with NYFCC and NBR. The final tally tipped in Gladstone’s favour 32-21, but Stone’s tally was nothing to sneeze at. The Golden Globes provided no clarity when both Stone and Gladstone won, given they were in separate categories. Then, just like Cate Blanchett last year, everything started to shift towards Stone.
Much to her huge surprise, Stone won at the Critics Choice Awards and when Gladstone shockingly failed to be nominated at the BAFTAs, her campaign started to look dreadfully shakey. While there were rumblings Hüller might score an upset with the Brits, Stone naturally earned her second BAFTA and all eyes then turned to SAG. If Stone won there, the race was all but over. But Gladstone’s Oscar chances came roaring back to life with that SAG win and the tide seems to have shifted in her favour in the crucial final stages.
As such, here we are on the cusp of the very first Native American actor winning an Academy Award. It’s a piece of history that naturally helps Gladstone’s campaign. However, like Michelle Yeoh last year, it’s just background noise to what will be a richly deserved win for a stunning and Oscar-worthy performance. Yes, Stone is equally deserving and if she does pull off a win, it’s far from the worst outcome. Anything can still happen on Oscar night, but the final buzz is with Gladstone and that’s where I lay my bet.
BEST ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (Paramount Pictures / Apple Original Films) – CCA, GG, SAG
2. Emma Stone – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
3. Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) – BAFTA, CCA, GG
4. Carey Mulligan – Maestro (Netflix) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
5. Annette Bening – Nyad (Netflix) – GG, SAG
Will win: Lily Gladstone
Should win: Emma Stone
Possible shocker: Annette Bening
