From the beginning of awards season, most pundits seemed to underestimate the chances of a Best Actor win for Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer. Naturally, everyone was predicting him to be nominated, but he was far from the early frontrunner. That title would fall to Bradley Cooper whose Oscar-baity work in Maestro seemed like the kind of performance that would finally net him an Academy Award after numerous unsuccessful nominations.
Cooper wanted this Oscar badly. Maybe a bit too badly. And that rubbed people the wrong way and he quickly fell out of contention as the season really began in December. In his place, most seemed to gravitate towards Paul Giamatti instead. He’s a beloved veteran who feels like he’s overdue for an Oscar, particularly after his snub in 2004 for Sideways. His work in The Holdovers was being praised as some of his best work. And he expectedly took a Golden Globe win in January, which seemed to propel him to the top of most people’s predictions lists.
But Murphy also scored a Globe victory (a drama one, at that) and that still wasn’t enough for a lot of people to consider him a solid chance of an Oscar win. Maybe it was because his performance is subtle and he’s not the type of bombastic personality who can successfully run the gambit of Oscar campaigning. Maybe it was the fact this is his very first nomination and some felt that would be reward enough for someone who’s never been in contention before. Maybe people just wanted a Giamatti win more.
It’s rather strange that the man who plays the titular role in a film all but destined to win Best Picture and possibly six or seven other Oscars wasn’t an absolute lock for a Best Actor victory in so many people’s eyes. But all that changed when Murphy won both the BAFTA and SAG in the space of a week. That kind of one-two punch is impossible to ignore and Murphy is now the undeniable leader of this pack.
Is there a chance of a Giamatti upset? Sure, anything is possible. He’s worked the campaign circuit extremely well. He’s universally adored and few would normally complain about such a veteran winning an Oscar. But Murphy carried the heavy burden that is Oppenheimer on his shoulders and delivered one of the finest performances you will ever see. He deserves this and no one should have ever doubted this was going to happen.
BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
2. Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
3. Bradley Cooper – Maestro (Netflix) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
4. Colman Domingo – Rustin (Netflix) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
5. Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction (Amazon MGM Studios) – CCA, GG, SAG
Will win: Cillian Murphy
Should win: Cillian Murphy
Possible shocker: Bradley Cooper
