Unlike last year where Summer of Soul essentially led the race for Best Documentary Feature from the very beginning, we haven’t ever truly had a solid frontrunner this season. And we’ll head into Oscar night with a relatively open race. That’s always much more interesting to watch, but much harder to predict.
Early in the season, All That Breathes landed wins with the International Documentary Association and Cinema Eye Honors. While it picked up key nominations from BAFTA, PGA, and DGA, it hasn’t landed a win with any of them. Sundance favourite Fire of Love scored a win at DGA for Sara Dosa plus nominations everywhere else. Way back in September, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed shocked pundits by picking up the prestigious Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival but hadn’t won anything else until its recent Indie Spirit Award prize.
Any of those three could be our eventual winner (sorry, A House Made of Splinters), but with its major wins at BAFTA and PGA, the tide seems to have turned late in the game for Navalny. Naturally, it helps that its subject matter is painfully pertinent given Vladamir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is still dominating headlines. And its titular star is currently suffering in permanent solitary confinement. The anti-Russia sentiment should be more than enough to carry this powerful and brilliant doco to a win.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE PREDICTIONS:
1. Navalny (HBO Documentary Films) – BAFTA, CCA, CEH, DGA, IDA, PGA
2. Fire of Love (NEON) – BAFTA, CCA, CEH, DGA, IDA, PGA
3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (NEON) – BAFTA, CEH, DGA, IDA
4. All That Breathes (HBO Documentary Films) – BAFTA, CEH, DGA, IDA, PGA
5. A House Made of Splinters (Giant Pictures)
Will win: Navalny
Should win: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Possible shocker: All That Breathes
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