If you listen to Film Twitter, the race for Best Picture is practically already over and Belfast is going to sail to victory. Sure, it’s our frontrunner right now. And, yes, at this point last year, Nomadland sat in a similar position and we know how that turned out. But let’s not count our chickens before they’re hatched. There’s a long way to go yet and anything could happen.
The buzz is certainly with Kenneth Branagh’s charming ode to his childhood. Box office numbers are still tricky to predict, but it seems like the kind of sleeper hit that could do well once it opens in the U.S. in mid-November (strangely, it’s not released in the UK until February). The film currently sits at 87% on Rotten Tomatoes, which isn’t staggeringly high, but there are only 40-odd reviews there right now.
There’s another feel-good charmer waiting in the wings to steal Branagh’s thunder. King Richard is a rousing crowd-pleaser that may prove to be the antidote to the last darkness of the last 18 months. But the film isn’t exactly a technical marvel and seems unlikely to pick up key nominations elsewhere, which may ultimately work against it.
But if there’s one nominee I’m personally gunning for, it’s Flee. Two years ago, Parasite broke the glass ceiling for world cinema to be taken seriously in the Best Picture race, and the trajectory of Flee feels very similar. After a rave response at Sundance back in January, the film has been building a solid fanbase with every film festival it’s played. Not only could Flee become the first documentary nominated for Best Picture, but it could also be the first animated film to win the top prize. If Belfast fatigue sets in (like it did with 1917 in 2019), Flee could be this year’s chosen one.
BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS:
1. Belfast (Focus Features)
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
3. King Richard (Warner Bros.)
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple TV+)
5. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
6. Licorice Pizza (MGM)
7. Dune (Warner Bros.)
8. West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
9. House of Gucci (MGM)
10. Flee (Neon)
IN CONTENTION
C’mon C’mon (A24)
CODA (Apple TV+)
Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
The French Dispatch (Searchlight Pictures)
A Hero (Amazon Studios)
House of Gucci (MGM)
The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
Mass (Bleeker Street)
Passing (Netflix)
Spencer (Neon)
tick, tick… BOOM! (Netflix)
Titane (Neon)
