You know it’s a strange year when the battle for Best Visual Effects is possibly the toughest category to predict. We’ve got a situation where the BAFTA winner (Poor Things) is not nominated, the Critics Choice winner (Oppenheimer) bafflingly wasn’t even short-listed by the Academy, and none of the five Oscar nominees are also up for Best Picture.
Without the typical kind of precursor season success, it’s genuinely difficult to ascertain which way this one will go. The smart bet seems to be The Creator, which scooped up five awards from the Visual Effects Society and also landed an Oscar nom for Best Sound. Without films many had as their early predictions to win like Oppenheimer and Poor Things, The Creator has sat in the frontrunner position by default for weeks now. But is that enough to get it over the line?
Early in the season, it looked like Ridley Scott’s Napoleon might be a major Oscar play across the board. But tepid reviews knocked it down to just being a tech contender, which saw it score three Oscar nominations for Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, and here for its visual effects. Normally, that would make it the strongest competitor in a field with films without such love elsewhere. Yet, there’s a lack of love for the film out there, particularly after it shockingly lost its lone nomination with the Visual Effects Society to Nyad of all films.
And then there’s the little-contender-that-could in Godzilla Minus One. I’d been saying all season it was a dark horse for a nomination and once it made it through, many have suggested it could be our eventual winner. It’s rare that a film wins this category when it’s not nominated anywhere else (The Jungle Book was the most recent sole nominee winner in 2016) and its failure to win its only nomination from the VES was a blow to its Oscar campaign. Still, there’s a lot of love out there for this surprise box-office smash.
So which way do you go with your final prediction? Honestly, I have no idea. It could be any of these three and you’re just going to have to go with your gut. In these situations, sometimes it’s just the film with the most passion behind it. You can’t say that’s either The Creator or Napoleon. I’ve been backing Godzilla Minus One all season and I think I’ll just stick with it until the bitter end.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS PREDICTIONS:
1. Godzilla Minus One (Toho) – VES
2. The Creator (20th Century Studios) – BAFTA, CCA, VES
3. Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) – VES
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Walt Disney Studios) – BAFTA, CCA, VES
5. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (Paramount Pictures) – CCA, VES
Will win: Godzilla Minus One
Should win: Oppenheimer…oh, wait…Poor Things…never mind
Possible shocker: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
