Welcome to the most confusing Oscars of your lifetime, and we’re not just talking about picking winners! Nearly every choice made for the show this year is a mind-boggling example of misidentifying problems and rubber-stamping them with ill-conceived solutions. Who knows how this show will go, and I’m torn between hoping for the best or hoping for irrefutable proof that all of these ideas should never be tried again.
Meanwhile, other things I’m torn about abound, and this is among the most difficult slate of Oscar predictions I can ever remember. I’m waffling on my picks so much that I’m taking the major categories down to the wire. But meanwhile, here’s my current thinking on the 15 below-the-line categories. Fun fact, only a few of these 15 races feel reasonably settled, and most of them could still go in multiple directions. Read on for all of the dumb reasoning I finally talked myself into, because even bad takes occasionally have a deadline. And then check back in another day or two for the major categories, including our annual exhaustive breakdown of every elimination and reallocation for the Best Picture preferential ballot.
Best Animated Feature
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
As far as precursors go, The Mitchells vs. the Machines won the top prize from the animation guild, while Encanto has won pretty much everything else. So conventional wisdom would suggest it’s down to those two, right? Not so fast. When I look at this list, what jumps out is that there are four traditional, well-liked Disney/Pixar-esque entries, and one beloved international art-house movie. That movie, Flee, also happened to set an Oscar record by being nominated for Best Animated Feature, Best Documentary Feature, and Best International Feature. So why couldn’t it win here?
In most years this category has a few films that no one really watches and probably get a miniscule share of the vote (recent examples include Over the Moon, I Lost My Body, Missing Link, and Mirai). But this year, that’s not the case. All five of these are major films, all five got great reviews, and all five had a ton of eyes on them. Consequently, all five should get a decent amount of support, which means the numeric threshold to get a plurality is significantly lower than usual.
So what if the four traditional entries all split the vote (or at least enough of it), while Flee dominates the vote from documentarians, international members (which has become a huge segment of the Academy), and art-house fans? There’s a lot of passion behind Flee, and given the current state of the world, supporting a beautiful, touching refugee story could also feel like a political act for some voters. It can pull off the upset.
Best Documentary Feature
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Writing With Fire
In a three-way race between Attica, Flee, and Summer of Soul, this is a question of what voters value. Attica delivered the most jaw-dropping footage and historical revelations, but did so in a fairly boilerplate style of talking-head documentary filmmaking. Flee is clearly beloved, but might feel like too much of a stretch for voters in this category (and they might feel like they can reward it elsewhere). Summer of Soul is a ton of fun, which could be its greatest attribute or its biggest weakness against four heavy films about the state of the world. If Attica were from Netflix or HBO, I think it could’ve captured enough zeitgeist attention to win, but on Showtime, it probably felt a little too invisible. That’s not the case for Summer of Soul, and this is one category where the least depressing film tends to win.
Best International Film
Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Every time this category has contained a Best Picture nominee, that’s been the winner. So it should go without saying that Drive My Car is the overwhelming favorite here. But we shouldn’t discount the chances of The Worst Person in the World to pull off a huge upset. People have been discovering it and gushing about it left and right over the last few weeks, and if enough voters recently saw it for the first time, it really could get the win. That said, I’m not quite daring enough to pick against Drive My Car.
Best Original Score
Don’t Look Up (Nicholas Britell)
Dune (Hans Zimmer)
Encanto (Germaine Franco)
Parallel Mothers (Alberto Iglesias)
The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood)
Most of the craft categories will ultimately come down to Dune versus The Power of the Dog, and how Dog performs could tell us a lot about its Best Picture chances as the evening progresses. Dune is the tech juggernaut, and will certainly win several of these, but it shouldn’t win all of them. Original Score will be one of the huge tests; Jonny Greenwood’s incredible score for The Power of the Dog—which beautifully and strikingly sets the film’s tone from the opening shot—really should win here. But if voters go on autopilot and just check off Dune for all the craft categories, Dog’s Best Picture chances might be toast.
Best Original Song
“Be Alive” by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter (King RIchard)
“Dos Oruguitas” by Lin-Manuel Miranda (Encanto)
“Down to Joy” by Van Morrison (Belfast)
“No Time to Die” by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell (No Time to Die)
“Somehow You Do” by Diane Warren (Four Good Days)
Diane Warren is the sentimental choice, because this is her 13th nomination and she’s never won. But let’s be honest—”Somehow You Do” is just a bad song and I can’t fathom it getting enough support against really good competition. Van Morrison might have won this category in a pre-Covid Oscars, but as one of the preeminent celebrity anti-vaxxers and anti-maskers, he has no chance in hell now. And Beyoncé is, of course, Beyoncé, so she can’t be counted out, but “Be Alive” doesn’t seem to have strongly resonated with people.
That’s not the case for “Dos Oruguitas” and “No Time to Die.” The whole Encanto soundtrack has become a sensation, and there’s also a lot of passion behind getting Lin-Manuel Miranda his EGOT (the Oscar is the only trophy he’s missing), but there’s also a lot of confusion about why “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” wasn’t the choice here. In some years that might not matter, but will voters support what they widely think is the wrong song from the right movie against competition as great as Billie Eilish? Not only is “No Time to Die” a killer Bond song—and keep in mind that the last two Bond songs both won this category—but because it came out before the film went on a 19-month Covid delay, the song has the added benefit of being over two years old and already feeling like a total classic.
Best Cinematography
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
What a killer lineup! West Side Story could certainly win, especially given how one of its stunning shots blew up on Twitter last week. The Tragedy of Macbeth also feels like it could win, and it’s worth noting that this category has been won by black and white films in two of the past three years. That’s too small a sample size to call a trend, but something to keep an eye on. More than likely, though, this is another race between Dune and The Power of the Dog. In addition to looking amazing, both films have an extra bit of voter incentive in their corner. For Dog, it’s that cinematographer Ari Wegner could become the first woman to ever win this category. And for Dune, it’s that cinematographer Greig Fraser also shot The Batman, so voters could feel like they’re rewarding two visually stunning films at once. In one of the most difficult races of the year to predict, I’m slightly leaning toward Dune.
Best Costume Design
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Dune feels like the automatic frontrunner, but I also can’t shake the feeling that Cruella could pull an upset here. It is, afterall, completely centered on two fashion designers trying to outdo one another with increasingly bizarre and daring looks, and the movie pulls that off. But will enough voters watch Cruella? I’m banking on No, which is why I’m playing safe and picking Dune.
Best Editing
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Tick, Tick…BOOM!
It’s a weird year for this category, as the field is totally devoid of the visceral excitement of recent winners like Ford v Ferrari, Dunkirk, and Mad Max: Fury Road, and none of the nominees jump out as being the likely winner. Music-centric films tend to do well here—both Bohemian Rhapsody and Whiplash won this category—but there’s also only been one non-Best Picture nominee to take this category in the last dozen years, so that doesn’t bode well for Tick, Tick…BOOM!. More than likely this is yet another race between Dune and The Power of the Dog, and with neither having particularly showy editing it could just come down to the simple question of which film voters like better. I expect that to be The Power of the Dog.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
The big question here is whether voters will lean toward “most makeup” (Coming 2 America), “most hairstyling” (Cruella), “most makes me think of makeup” (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), or “only nominee I actually liked” (Dune). Tammy Faye certainly has a shot here just because of the immediate connotation with the category, but I suspect most voters would rather just reward Dune.
Best Production Design
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
I’ve seen some Nightmare Alley predictions here, but as far as mid-20th century period pieces go in this category, West Side Story seems to both do more intricate work and call more attention to it. Regardless, those two films will likely draw similar voters, while the lone sci-fi nominee can stand out from the pack. Dune manages to be both grand and spare, adventurous and desolate, and that less-is-more creativity should give it the win.
Best Sound
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Surely West Side Story will get some support by virtue of being the only musical in the category, and if there were still two sound categories—Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Effects Editing were folded into one category last year—West Side Story would stand a great chance at winning one of them. But Dune has some of the best and most inventive sound design in recent memory, and it should cruise to the win.
Best Visual Effects
Dune
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
The single easiest category on the board this year. It’s unfathomable that Dune won’t win this. Unless, of course, ABC holds the Academy’s Board of Governors hostage until Spider-Man gets an Oscar. (Don’t rule this out.)
Best Animated Short
Affairs of the Art
Bestia
Boxballet
Robin Robin
The Windshield Wiper
I’ve seen all of the nominees in this category since 2009, and this is by far the weakest field in those dozen years. It’s almost hard to imagine any of them actually winning, but I’m here to take on the challenge. A quick breakdown: Robin Robin is cute and endearing but painfully too long, Bestia is completely unwatchable (six people walked out of the theater when I saw it, and it’s only 16 minutes long!), and the other three are all interesting but also fairly weird and challenging. Because four of these lean heavily toward the WTF side of things and only one is cute and easily digestible, bet on cute. The art-house batch will cannibalize each other’s votes, while Robin Robin is the only choice for voters with conventional tastes.
Best Documentary Short
Audible
Lead Me Home
The Queen of Basketball
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies
Lead Me Home is a harrowing account of the West Coast homelessness problem, and it largely centers on two cities (Los Angeles and San Francisco) flush with Academy voters. On the one hand, awarding this film an Oscar instead of actually addressing the problem could be the exact kind of rubber-stamped, look-how-much-we-pretend-to-care faux solution that justifiably drives people insane about Hollywood. On the other hand, Lead Me Home is immensely depressing, and it’ll likely just make too many voters uncomfortable with how close to home it hits.
Instead I’d look to another Netflix film, Audible, which is about a perennial champion high school football team at a Maryland school for the deaf. Audible has three major things going for it: first, it’s a genuinely powerful and uplifting story that grips the viewer from the first minute to the last. Second, it’s actually the most cinematic and creatively told of the five nominees, and it feels much more like a film than an expanded news segment. And last, films with deaf characters are truly having a moment; Sound of Metal was a Best Picture nominee last year, CODA might win Best Picture this year, and the Quiet Place films have become a major franchise. Audible should cruise to the win.
Best Live Action Short
Ala Kachuu – Take and Run
The Dress
The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold
Only one of the five nominees has murder and none of them involve child endangerment, so that’s refreshing. On the other hand, two of them involve sexual assault, two of them feature state-sponsored racism, and two of them feature wrongful imprisonment. In other words, welcome to the live action shorts!
But honestly, all five of these are actually pretty good. One of them has an actual movie star—Riz Ahmed stars in The Long Goodbye—so that could be a likely winner. But it’s also the most harrowing of the five. That’s why I’d look toward Please Hold. While all five films are about heavy subject matter, Please Hold treats its very serious issues with humor and inanity, while the other four films don’t contain a single moment of levity between them. Sometimes being the only funny one in the batch is a disadvantage, because you end up seeming slight by comparison. But that’s not an issue for Please Hold, which doesn’t sacrifice an ounce of resonance in locating the creative hilarity in the troubling issues it’s discussing.
