All season long, the battle for Best Original Screenplay has been a tight contest between Kenneth Branagh (Belfast) and Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza). Both are searching for their first win after numerous unsuccessful nominations. Both have earned plaudits this season. And, even at this late stage, they both feel like they could win.
With eight nominations over the last three decades, Branagh is still chasing his first Oscar. We know he’s not winning Best Director and Belfast now seems to be out of the running for Best Picture, so this category represents his best chance for a victory. While Branagh scored wins at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, he shockingly couldn’t win on home soil at the BAFTAs. Was that foreshadowing an Oscar loss?
With 11 nominations over the last 25 years (including four screenwriting nods), Anderson feels dreadfully overdue. Much like Branagh, we know he’s not winning Best Director. Nor is Licorice Pizza winning Best Picture, so his only chance also lies with this category. Anderson’s BAFTA win was a huge coup for his Oscar campaign, but the fact he just lost WGA (where Branagh was ineligible) to Adam McKay and David Sirota (Don’t Look Up) was a huge surprise and hardly the headlines Anderson needed just as Oscar voting commenced. Is that something to read into?
There’s also the slight possibility Branagh and Anderson split the votes and someone else sneaks past them. Maybe McKay and Sirota. Maybe Zach Baylin (King Richard). Maybe even Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt (The Worst Person in the World). The fact the little Norwegian film landed a surprise nomination could suggest there’s strong support for Trier and Vogt.
Without any clear consensus from the preseason, you’re going to have to go with your gut on this one. Or just flip a damn coin. It could genuinely go either way. It’s hard to ignore the seven nominations for Belfast and the thought that voters will want to give it something. There’s also been some “backlash” to some narrative elements of Licorice Pizza (the protagonists’ age difference, that one racist character), whereas Belfast is not problematic in the slightest. Branagh has been campaigning like crazy over the last few weeks, so I think he has the edge here.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. Belfast (Focus Features)
Kenneth Branagh
2. Licorice Pizza (MGM)
Paul Thomas Anderson
3. Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
Adam McKay, David Sirota
4. King Richard (Warner Bros)
Zach Baylin
5. The Worst Person in the World (Neon)
Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt
Will win: Belfast
Should win: The Worst Person in the World
Possible shocker: The Worst Person in the World
