The Academy’s five picks for Best Original Screenplay included one surprise nomination that truly made my heart soar. I wasn’t brave enough to predict a nomination for Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt for The Worst Person in the World, but I was secretly hoping it would happen. It’s my personal favourite screenplay of the year, and it was such a genuine thrill to see it score a well-deserved Oscar nomination. But we all know that’s as far as it goes for the pair of Norwegian writers.
This remains a fierce contest between Belfast and Licorice Pizza and two titans of the industry in the form of 8-time nominee Kenneth Branagh and 11-time nominee Paul Thomas Anderson. While Belfast scored plenty of nods including Best Picture, it missed several key tech categories including film editing and cinematography. If it’s to have any hope of winning Best Picture, Branagh has to win for screenwriting, leading to a victory reminiscent of Spotlight in 2015. But if Anderson wins, you’d have to think it’s all over for Belfast.
Anderson is a formidable contender here. He’s received four screenwriting nominations in the past and is still chasing his first win. There will be plenty in the Academy’s membership who are longing to award Anderson with his overdue Oscar. While Licorice Pizza could only nab three nominations overall, the fact Anderson made it into the Best Director line-up shows how beloved he is. I’m keeping Branagh in front for now, but the remaining few weeks should provide some insight into which way the Academy is leaning.
So what will shape this race before Oscar voting commences on March 17? BAFTA and Critics Choice will reveal their winners on March 13. All five nominees except The Worst Person in the World are present at both ceremonies, so the winners there could prove extremely telling for this race. With Branagh ineligible at the WGA Awards, Anderson should cruise to victory on March 20.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. Belfast (Focus Features)
Kenneth Branagh
2. Licorice Pizza (MGM)
Paul Thomas Anderson
3. Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
Adam McKay, David Sirota
4. King Richard (Warner Bros)
Zach Baylin
5. The Worst Person in the World (Neon)
Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt
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