With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. Given the ACE Eddie Award nominations aren’t announced until February 1, we have to look elsewhere to see how the race for Best Film Editing is shaping. Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (which has picked up 20 wins from the critics), and Top Gun: Maverick are the only contenders to score nods from both BAFTA and the Critics Choice Awards, so they all feel safe at this point.
That leaves those final two spots up for grabs to a number of contenders. It’s still hard to know if The Fabelmans is going to sweep nominations across the board as we presumed from the beginning of the season or if it’s going to majorly underperform like it did with BAFTA. If its Best Picture campaign was stronger, a nod for editing would be all but assured. Regardless, I still think it makes it in.
As for the fifth spot, well your guess is as good as mine. There’s a case to be made for Avatar: The Way of Water, purely on the strength of its three-hour-plus running time lending itself to that old adage of the film with the “most” editing often makes it through. Its predecessor earned a nomination, so it’s entirely plausible its sequel gets in too.
But it’s hard to ignore the strength of All Quiet on the Western Front in recent weeks. It has peaked at just the right time and its editing is just as masterful as any other contender. The BAFTA nomination won’t make a difference, as Oscar voting had already closed by the time that announcement came through, but it showed the love is out there.
BEST FILM EDITING PREDICTIONS:
1. Everything Everywhere All At Once – Paul Rogers (A24) – BAFTA, CCA
2. Top Gun: Maverick – Chris Lebenzon, Eddie Hamilton (Paramount Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA
3. Elvis – Matt Villa, Jonathan Redmond (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA, CCA
4. The Fabelmans – Michael Kahn, Sara Broshar (Universal Pictures)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front – Sven Budelmann (Netflix) – BAFTA
Alternate: Avatar: The Way of Water – David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refoua, Stephen E. Rivkin and Ian Silverstein (20th Century Studios) – CCA
