Final Oscars Predictions – Best Picture

Well, well, well. A month ago, it seemed like the Best Picture race was drawing to a close. The Power of the Dog had snatched the lion’s share of prizes from the critics groups and a win for Best Motion Picture – Drama at the Golden Globes. It was firming as the favourite at PGA, BAFTA, and the Critics Choice Awards. And there didn’t seem to be a strong challenger to the film’s frontrunner status. Enter the little-film-that-could.

When the Oscar nominations were announced and CODA only nabbed nominations for Best Picture, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay, we presumed that was the end of its chances for the big prize. Sure, films have won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination or key tech nods like Film Editing and Cinematography, but never without all of them. But, clearly, rules are made to be broken.

It wasn’t a huge surprise to see CODA take out the ensemble prize at the SAG Awards, but it did start the buzz growing for the film as a genuine contender for Best Picture. Suddenly, there were articles popping up everywhere ringing the film’s praises and declaring it the dark horse underdog to dethrone the mighty The Power of the Dog.

While BAFTA and Critics Choice still proclaimed The Power of the Dog as their big winner, there was a growing sense that the tide was shifting, particularly with CODA claiming a shock victory for Best Adapted Screenplay at the BAFTAs; a win it now seems likely to repeat at the Oscars. That change in tide was truly confirmed when CODA took home PGA, which gave credence to the long-assumed presumption The Power of the Dog may struggle on a preferential voting system.

That now leaves us with a tight two-horse battle for Best Picture without a clear frontrunner. On the one hand, you have a film that’s won with BAFTA, DGA, Critics Choice, and the Golden Globes and has 12 nominations overall. On the other, we have a film with just three nods and wins from PGA, SAG, and WGA. One is a critically acclaimed slow-burn neo-western. The other is a heartwarming, feel-good familial crowdpleaser. Which one will they go with?

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We prognosticators have to throw up our hands and admit we genuinely don’t know. There are valid reasons to pick either film. There are also valid reasons not to pick each film. We can talk ourselves in circles trying to decide and still not feel comfortable with our prediction. Much like confusing years like 2015 (Spotlight vs. The Revenant vs. The Big Short) and 2017 (The Shape of Water vs. Three Billboards), we just have to lay our claim somewhere and hope for the best.

The PGA victory for CODA is definitely hard to ignore. It highlights how well that film can do on a preferential ballot. The one thing that stops me from taking that win too seriously is the lack of international voters like we have in the newly-diversified Academy. I struggle to comprehend the same Academy members who voted for Nomadland and Parasite will vote for something as general as CODA. I don’t mean that as an insult, but compared to the previous two winners, CODA just doesn’t make sense as the next film in line. Then again, we did go from Moonlight and The Shape of Water to Green Book, so maybe we are in the same cycle now.

That being said, it’s hard to deny CODA has the groundswell of support in the final stages of this season. Maybe it’s a case of voter exhaustion over The Power of the Dog winning everything. Maybe it was Apple pulling out all the campaign stops for their first genuine Oscar contender. Maybe an uplifting film like CODA is precisely what voters were looking for after the misery of the last two years. Whatever has led us to this point, I can’t deny the tide has indeed turned and CODA now feels more likely to win Best Picture than any of the other nine nominees.

Without the key nominations held by previous winners, CODA is going to break all sorts of precedents if it wins. But, at the end of the day, voters know very little of the rules we pundits toil over to make a case for our predictions. They simply vote for what they love, regardless of whether it meets the apparent criteria we believe necessary for a Best Picture win. They don’t care it’s not up for Best Director or Film Editing. CODA made them laugh and cry and smile and feel good. It’s not hard to see why they want it to win.

There’s still absolutely a strong chance The Power of the Dog wins this. It is hard to grapple with the thought a 12-time nominee is only taking Best Director and nothing else, especially given that hasn’t happened since Mike Nichols for The Graduate in 1967. After years of attempting to snatch the Academy’s big prize, Netflix has genuinely thrown everything they have at The Power of the Dog. Is there still a bias against them for rattling the industry with their bold streaming tactics? It’s possible and wildly ironic a film from a junior streaming service like Apple TV+ may achieve a Best Picture win first.

At the end of the day, history is going to be made in some form or another. A film from a streaming platform is going to win Best Picture for the first time. A film directed by a woman is going to win Best Picture for only the third time and it will be the first time we have consecutive female-directed winners. History may not look kindly on a CODA victory (and it’s sure to send Film Twitter into a meltdown), but it was the film with all the heat when final voting began. If Apple have somehow pulled this off, it’s an astonishing achievement and one that may have ramifications on the Oscar race for years to come.

BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS:
1. CODA (Apple TV+)
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
3. Belfast (Focus Features)
4. King Richard (Warner Bros.)
5. West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
6. Dune (Warner Bros.)
7. Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
8. Licorice Pizza (MGM)
9. Drive My Car (Janus Films)
10. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)